November 24 | ETH Trend Analysis

Core Points

Current Price

$2,797 ( as of November 24th, 2023, 24-hour increase +0.99%, fluctuation range between $2,788-$2,855

) Short-term Outlook

Cautiously bullish. The technical indicators show that the daily RSI has reached the oversold zone ###30(, and on-chain data indicates that large amounts of funds are flowing out of exchanges, forming a positive signal. The expectations for the Fusaka upgrade on )12 December 3rd ( provide an upward catalyst. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the $2,750-$2,850 range within the next 24-48 hours, with a key focus on whether the $2,785 support can hold.

) Key Support

• $2,785 ### strong support (: 1-hour Bollinger Bands lower band + large long liquidation cluster
• $2,774 ) Medium Support (: 4-hour Bollinger Band Middle Line + Consolidation Area
• $2,632 ) strong support (: daily Bollinger Bands lower band + main liquidation cascade zone

) key resistance

• $2,816 ### Medium Resistance (: 1-Hour EMA ) + Bollinger Band Middle Line
• $2,849 ( strong resistance ): 1 hour Bollinger Bands upper band + short liquidation cluster
• $2,984 ( strong resistance ): daily EMA ( + oversold rebound target

Technical Analysis

The current price is near a convergence point of multiple support levels, the OBV indicator shows continuous selling pressure, but the exchange's capital outflow of )-1.73M ETH( suggests that institutions are accumulating at lower levels.

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Market Drivers

) positive factors

• Fusaka Upgrade Approaching: Mainnet activation on December 3rd, introducing PeerDAS and minimum L2 data fees, expected to enhance revenue capture capability by 5-10 times.
• Whale Accumulation: BitMine Immersion bought 21,537 ETH in a single day, amounting to approximately $59 million, demonstrating institutional confidence at the bottom.
• ETF Capital Inflow: Recorded a net inflow of $55.7 million on November 21, ending a consecutive 9-day outflow trend.

( Risk Factors

• Supply Growth: Weekly increase of 18,019 ETH, annual inflation rate of 0.78%, scarcity affected.
• DAT Selling Pressure: The digital asset treasury sold $73 million worth of ETH positions to repurchase stocks.
• Technical outlook is bearish: Multiple time frame moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and the MACD divergence has not yet been confirmed.

Derivatives Data

The open interest increased by 1.73% in the past 24 hours, and the funding rates showed differentiation ) Binance +0.021%, Bybit -0.057% ###, overall indicating a neutral to bullish sentiment. The liquidation risk chart shows that $563M of long positions are concentrated around $2,688 below, while $789M of short positions are concentrated around $2,883 above, creating bidirectional liquidation pressure.

Trading Strategies

Long Position Settings:

• Entry: $2,795
• Target: $2,849
• Stop Loss: $2,785
• Risk-reward ratio: 5.4:1

Short Selling Settings:

• Entry: Break below $2,785
• Target: $2,774
• Stop Loss: $2,816
• Risk-reward ratio: 1:1

Summary

ETH is currently at a critical point of a technical oversold rebound, with the gain or loss of the $2,785 support level determining the short-term direction. Expectations for the Fusaka upgrade and institutional accumulation provide fundamental support for the bulls, but volume must confirm the validity of the rebound. It is recommended to closely monitor the volume and price performance during today's European and American trading sessions; a breakthrough of $2,816 will confirm the short-term rebound, while a drop below $2,785 will necessitate caution regarding a further decline to the $2,632 area.