November 26 | ETH Trend Analysis

Core Insights

Current Price: $2,951.89 (as of November 26, 09:25)

Short-term outlook: The short-term bias is bullish, with technical indicators showing an upward trend on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. The RSI is in a neutral to bullish zone, and the MACD maintains a bullish signal. Although the daily chart is still in a downward trend, the oversold state of the RSI provides support for a rebound. The probability of testing the $3,000-$3,050 area upwards in the next 24-48 hours is 60%.

Key Support:

• $2,947 (Strong support, recent area of concentrated long liquidations)
• $2,919 (medium support, 1-hour Bollinger Bands midline/EMA200)
• $2,867 (strong support, 4-hour EMA50/Bollinger Bands lower band)

Key Resistance:

• $2,972 (medium resistance, 1-hour Bollinger Bands upper band)
• $2,987 (strong resistance, 4-hour Bollinger Bands upper limit)
• $3,000 (strong resistance, psychological barrier/bear liquidation starting point)

Technical Analysis

multi-timeframe structure

The current price is above the short-term moving average but below the daily moving average, showing a pattern of divergence between bulls and bears. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts indicate healthy upward momentum, with RSI values of 57.6 and 58.5 respectively, and the MACD histogram is positive. The daily chart shows an RSI of 37.5, which is in the oversold area, providing a technical basis for a potential rebound.

Key Price Level Analysis

The technical analysis shows that a breakout above $2,987 (the upper Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart) will open up upward space towards $3,132; if it falls below the support at $2,919, there is a risk of probing down to the $2,867 liquidation zone.

On-chain Data Analysis

Whale Activity

There has been significant whale activity in the past 24-48 hours, with the top 10 transactions involving approximately 240,000 ETH (worth about $709 million). This includes a large transfer of 60,000 ETH and multiple chain transfers of over 30,000 ETH, indicating active reallocation of funds by large holders.

exchange capital flow

• Net Outflow: Approximately 21,000 ETH (about $62.4 million) net outflow from November 24 to 25.
• Exchange Reserve: Decreased from 13.64 million to 13.60 million ETH, indicating a continued decrease in reserves which reduces selling pressure.

ETF capital inflow

The spot ETH ETF recorded a net inflow of $96.67 million on November 24, led by BlackRock's ETHA (+$92.61 million), reversing the previous trend of capital outflow and indicating a recovery in institutional confidence.

Derivative Data

The total position amount is $35.1 billion (a 24-hour decrease of 1.33%), and the funding rate is neutral to slightly bullish. The maximum pain point for options is around $2900, indicating that short-term prices may be influenced by this level.

The liquidation risk chart shows that there is a cumulative long liquidation risk of $498 million below $2854, while there is a short liquidation pressure of $547 million above $3053, presenting an asymmetric downside waterfall risk.

Market Sentiment

Social media sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with key opinion leaders highlighting bullish factors such as the decline in ETH supply and inflows of stablecoins. Technical analysts are generally focused on whether the current support level can hold effectively; if it does, a rebound above $3000 is anticipated. Some analysts maintain the judgment that ETH will perform better relative to BTC in the next round of upward movement.

Trading Suggestions

Bullish Scenario (Probability 60%):

• Entry: around $2,950
• Target: $3,050
• Stop Loss: $2,900
• Risk-reward ratio: 2.0

Key Points:

• Pay attention to whether the key support of $2,919 can be effectively held.
• Additional positions can be added after breaking $2,987 to chase the long.
• Strictly implement stop-loss management

Risk Warning

Although the short-term technical outlook is bullish, the daily level is still in a downward trend and is approaching a densely packed area for long liquidation. It is necessary to closely monitor changes in the macro environment and the trend of Bitcoin's dominance, as the latter has historically affected ETH's relative performance.