November 27 | ETH Trend Analysis

Core Insights

Current Price: $3,037 ( as of November 27, 10:36 )

Short-term Outlook: Bullish

• 24-hour increase of +3.51%, rebounding about 11% from the low of $2,650 to $2,800
• Spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of $175M for two consecutive days, with institutional funds continuing to pour in.
• The exchange's ETH balance has decreased by about $4B, indicating that investors are actively accumulating coins.
• The RSI shows strong momentum on the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, while the MACD presents bullish signals.
• The futures funding rate is slightly negative, with shorts paying interest to longs, reducing downward pressure.

Key Support: $2,778 - $2,860

• $2,860: 1-hour Bollinger Bands lower band, short-term support level
• $2,778: 4-hour Bollinger Band lower band and recent low point, strong support area

Key Resistance: $3,094 - $3,115

• $3,094: 1-hour Bollinger Band upper band, short-term resistance level
• $3,115: Midline of the daily Bollinger Bands and 1-hour/4-hour SMA50, key breakout point

Technical Analysis

Multi-Period Indicator

Key Price Level Analysis

• Breakthrough Target: A close above $3,115 will confirm a bullish reversal, targeting the $3,200 area.
• Risk Level: There is a risk of retracing to $2,778 if it falls below $2,950

Derivatives Data

The open interest has increased by 6.85% in the last 24 hours, indicating a strengthened market confidence. Large-scale liquidation of shorts ( $37.2M vs longs $14.0M ) supports a short-term bullish sentiment. The negative funding rate suggests that the cost of shorting is high, which is favorable for price upward movement.

On-chain Metrics

In the past 7 days, there has been a net outflow of 257,000 ETH, with exchange reserves dropping to 16.85 million (-1.4%), indicating that large holders continue to accumulate. The DeFi ecosystem's TVL has rebounded from a low of $65B to $69.4B, and DEX trading volume remains at an average of $2.75B per day, suggesting that on-chain activity is steadily recovering.

Social Sentiment

The Twitter/X platform shows a cautiously optimistic sentiment, with KOLs generally optimistic about ETH breaking the downward trend line, believing that the current position is a stage for institutions and whales to accumulate. Technical breakout signals and on-chain accumulation data have become the main bullish arguments, but attention still needs to be paid to whether it can effectively break through the $3,000-$3,115 resistance range.

Conclusion

The short-term technical outlook for ETH is bullish, with relatively strong support levels. Institutional capital inflow and whale accumulation provide fundamental support. The key is whether it can break through the $3,115 resistance to confirm a trend reversal. It is recommended to pay attention to the volume-price relationship near this level.