The government reopened, but the dollar fell?

Recent event: The House passed a temporary funding bill, Trump signed it, and the government shutdown is over. As a result, traders began to worry—how to interpret the economic data backlog accumulated during the shutdown?

The interesting thing is this:

Danske Bank has outlined a timeline, suggesting that before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, it may release three employment reports and two inflation data at once. If these data look good, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates will decrease.

The current logic of the market is —
- Weak data → Dollar fall (already happening)
- Strong data → Federal Reserve holds interest rates → Dollar rebounds

Danske Bank bets on the latter: the resilience of the U.S. economy will be reflected in this wave of data, and the dollar will catch up at that time.

In simple terms, the economic data in the next two weeks will determine the next steps for the US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and even the cryptocurrency market.