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The AI valuation gap just got impossible to ignore.
OpenAI sits at $500B with $20B annual revenue and $8B cash burn this year. CEO's November memo warned of 5% growth headwinds—written before Google dropped Gemini 3.0. Internal models show cumulative losses hitting $115B by 2029.
Meanwhile, Google: $98.5B cash on hand, 4B users across Search/YouTube/Android, custom TPU chips cutting Nvidia dependency, Gemini 3.0 running native across the entire stack. Trading at 8x revenue vs OpenAI's 25x multiple.
This isn't competition. It's structural mismatch.
OpenAI needs investors to believe $100B+ losses eventually justify a $500B bet. Google already owns distribution, data, chips and users—printing $60B+ annual profit while trading at a third the multiple.
If AI power consolidates inside infrastructure platforms instead of AI labs, the entire VC thesis collapses. Microsoft's $13B stake buys time, not immunity from math.
The repricing is already happening. Market just hasn't caught up.