November 29 | ETH Trend Analysis

## Core Views

Current Price: $3047 (As of November 29, 9 AM)

• 24-hour increase: +1.58%
• 7-day increase: +10.08%
• Market Cap: $367.8B

Short-term outlook: Cautiously bullish

• The technical aspect shows a consolidation pattern, with multiple indicators indicating a sideways bullish trend.
• Fusaka upgrade (December 3) as an important catalyst, community sentiment is relatively optimistic.
• Exchange reserves have fallen to a multi-year low, indicating continued accumulation.

Key Support:

• First level support: $3006 (1-hour Bollinger Band lower limit)
• Secondary support: $3010 (EMA cluster area)
• Level 3 Support: $2988 (4-hour EMA26)

Key Resistance:

• Recent resistance: $3082 (1-hour Bollinger Band upper limit)
• Secondary resistance: $3096 (4-hour Bollinger Bands upper band)
• Important resistance: $3180 (Daily EMA26)

Technical Analysis

price trend

ETH is currently consolidating around $3047, located near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at $3044. Multi-timeframe signals are mixed, with the 1-hour and 4-hour showing a neutral stance, while the daily chart indicates a weak bearish trend as it is situated below the key moving averages.

Technical Indicator Status

• RSI: 1 hour 52.4 (neutral), 4 hour 59.7 (slightly bullish), daily 42.3 (weak)
• MACD: The 1-hour shows a bearish crossover, the 4-hour negative value narrowing suggests a potential reversal, and the daily chart shows a bullish divergence signal.
• Moving Average: Short-term prices hold above the EMA support, but are still below the main daily moving average.

Position Analysis

The futures open interest presents a net long position, with a long-to-short ratio of 2.51 (71.5% long accounts). In the last 24 hours, $58.7M has been liquidated, of which $34.4M was short liquidations, providing upward momentum for the price.

Options Market

The maximum pain point for options lies in the $3000-3050 range, reinforcing the importance of the current price range.

Market Sentiment

social media sentiment

Overall sentiment leans bullish, main driving factors:

• Fusaka Upgrade Expectations: The network upgrade on December 3rd will enhance scalability, lowering Layer-2 fees through PeerDAS and higher Gas limits.
• Institutional Accumulation: Large purchases support price stability, exchange reserves have fallen to a multi-year low.
• Technical Form: Multiple analysts point out that the rebound from historical support levels aligns with past cycle recovery patterns.

Key narrative theme

• The ETH-BTC trading pair shows a reversal pattern, indicating a shift of funds towards altcoins.
• The integration phase is seen as a buildup before a breakthrough, with smart capital positioning itself in advance.

24-Hour Outlook

Bullish scenario (60% probability)

After breaking the $3082 resistance, the target is $3100, benefiting from the positive MACD divergence and short liquidation support. The liquidation risk chart shows that there is only $4.8M short exposure near $3056, indicating low resistance to the breakout.

bearish scenario (probability 40%)

Breaking below the $3006 support will test $2988, especially if the 1-hour MACD weakens further.

Trading Strategy Suggestions

• Bullish Strategy: Build positions in the $3010-3020 range, stop loss at $2988, target $3082-3100
• Short Strategy: If it falls below $3006, consider a light short position, stop loss at $3050, target $2988

Risk Warning: Digital currency investments involve high risks, please invest cautiously according to your own risk tolerance.