November 29 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Points

Current Price: $91,011 (as of the morning of November 29)

• 24h Change: +0.21%
• 24-hour range: $90,347 - $92,849

Short-term Outlook: Neutral to optimistic

• The technical aspect shows mixed signals, under pressure at the 1-hour level but stabilizing at the 4-hour level.
• On-chain data supports accumulation, with continuous net outflow from the exchange.
• The expiration of options ($15.4 billion) may bring short-term volatility.

Key Support:

• $90,000: Lower Bollinger Band and Important Psychological Level
• $88,000: Accumulated $1.1 billion long liquidation concentration area

Key Resistance:

• $92,000: Upper Bollinger Band and technical resistance
• $93,000: Short liquidation zone, target after breakout $98,000-100,000

Technical Analysis

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

price target

Today's Expected Range: $89,500 - $92,500

• Bullish Scenario: Target $92,500-93,500 after breaking $91,500
• Bearish Scenario: Testing $89,500-88,500 after breaking below $90,000

On-chain Data Analysis

capital flow

Exchange Updates:

• Net outflow of 4,041 BTC on November 28
• Exchange reserves decreased to 1.8327 million coins, down 8.6% from the beginning of the week.
• Show the ongoing off-chain accumulation trend

ETF Flows:

• Total net inflow of $57.6 billion (as of November 26)
• Grayscale GBTC daily inflow of $8.9 million (November 29)
• Weekly outflow of $1.3 billion, institutional buying slows down

Market Sentiment

social media popularity

Key Points:

• Market focuses on breaking the $92,000-93,000 resistance
• Technical analysts are generally optimistic about the rebound after the RSI is oversold.
• A large number of options expiring increases short-term uncertainty.

Influencer Perspective:

• CryptoMichNL: Considered a buying opportunity, target $100,000
• TheCryptoLark: Warning that a strong breakout above $110,000 is needed.
• TATrader_Alan: Optimistic about the rebound from the RSI support zone.

Risk Factors

Upside Risk:

• Options expiration triggers short squeeze
• Expectations of Fed rate cuts support liquidity
• On-chain accumulation signal reinforcement

Downside Risk:

• Continuous outflow pressure from ETFs
• Early whale sell-off (Owen Gunden liquidates $1.3 billion)
• Macroeconomic environment uncertainty

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Long Strategy:

• Buy in batches near the support level of $90,000
• After breaking $92,000, chase the rise to $93,500
• Set the stop loss below $88,000

Short Selling Strategy:

• Short in batches at the resistance zone between $92,000 and $93,000
• Increase position after breaking below $90,000
• Set the stop loss above $94,000

Probability Assessment: 60% chance of rising to the range of $92,500-93,500, 40% chance of falling to $88,500.