What if holiday spending tanked 50%? ChatGPT ran the numbers, and the fallout would be brutal:

**GDP impact:** Quarterly growth drops 0.5-1 percentage points, Q4 potentially flatlines or goes negative.

**Retail bloodbath:** 20-30% revenue hit for most retailers, mass store closures (especially department stores, apparel brands, toy shops). E-commerce giants like Amazon would survive better, but still take damage.

**Jobs vanish:** 300k-600k seasonal retail jobs gone, plus warehouse workers and delivery drivers. First-quarter layoffs as companies restructure.

**Domino effect:** Manufacturing orders collapse → idle inventory piles up. Retail stocks crash 10-25%, broader market dips 2-5%. State/local governments face sales tax shortfalls, forcing budget cuts and hiring freezes.

Context: Holiday spending is projected to hit $1T+ in 2025 (up 3.7-4.2% YoY), so a 50% crash is pure fiction. But the 2008 Great Recession only saw a 4.5% dip—this would be apocalyptic by comparison. Retail's only 5-6% of GDP, so it wouldn't trigger another Great Recession alone, but the damage to consumer-facing industries would be gnarly.