The 300 billion euro aid plan got stuck like this.

The European Central Bank directly rejected the €140 billion compensatory loan plan, citing a seemingly grand reason: "Monetary policy cannot become a tool of fiscal policy." The words sound nice, but the result is that Ukraine is left out in the cold. Even more surreal, it is rumored that the U.S. side has hinted at the negotiation table: negotiations can happen, but the frozen €300 billion of Russian Central Bank assets must be returned intact, and they also want a cut from it.

Internal Europe? A complete mess. Hungary firmly opposes. Belgium demands legal guarantees before it will relent. Slovakia has simply withdrawn from the negotiations. With the final deadline of December 18 approaching, if the agreement cannot be reached, Ukraine's defense budget for 2026 may be directly cut — and Russia's advance shows no signs of stopping.

The aid plan exists on paper, but its execution is still far away. All parties are calculating too much and taking too little action. For the crypto market, this geopolitical deadlock continues to ferment, and risk aversion will continue to affect the flow of funds. The volatility of assets like #ETH走势分析 largely reflects these invisible games.