Waking up in the middle of the night to market alerts is truly thrilling! The Fed's sudden emergency meeting this time broke a routine that had lasted for over forty years, setting the tone in just one hour. Bitcoin surged directly to the $42,000 mark, and Ether also climbed above $2,800, with various bullish voices rising and falling in the community.

As someone who has been in this industry for many years, I feel that the intricacies behind this volatility need to be carefully examined. The Fed's recent actions indeed have an unusual flavor, and it is very likely a signal that the liquidity landscape is about to change.

The market's expectations for interest rate cuts are currently quite divided. CME data shows that the probability of a 50 basis point cut in December has surged to 68%, a jump of 32 points from the previous day. However, several major investment banks believe that a 75 basis point cut is more reasonable. This divergence is quite interesting, as it actually reflects the current stubbornness of the U.S. economy: inflation data is declining, while the rate of bad loans at banks is on the rise.

The sensitivity of capital's intuition is always the sharpest. The day before the Fed meeting, the world's largest bond ETF attracted $6.2 billion in a single day, and the total holdings of cryptocurrency spot ETFs also surpassed the $45 billion mark. The speed of these "smart money" movements is astonishing, clearly indicating that they are positioning themselves in advance.

However, that being said, there are often risks hidden when the market is crazy. Right now, there are all sorts of positive news flying around, but the real test may still be ahead.