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Last night, there was another major move in global markets. The three major US stock indexes all climbed higher, with the Dow Jones surging 408 points, and the S&P and Nasdaq also pushing upward. However, Chinese concept stocks had a rough time—NIO and XPeng both dropped over 4%, and Alibaba and Baidu couldn’t hold up either. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.38%.

The key is the jobs data. US private sector employment for November unexpectedly shrank, and the market immediately picked up on it—the probability of a Fed rate cut in December shot up to around 89%. As soon as the data was released, US Treasury yields and the dollar both fell, while gold turned upward.

Energy markets were also volatile. A pipeline exploded suddenly in the Russia-Ukraine area, and with some sanctions still having an impact, international oil prices surged at the open, with much greater volatility.

In short: weak jobs data gave markets room to imagine a rate cut, and US stocks and gold took the opportunity to rally; geopolitical tensions and supply concerns caused oil prices to spike at the open. Now, everyone’s eyes are on next week’s Fed meeting to see what stance they’ll take.

Do you think the Fed will really pivot this time? How much longer can the gold and energy sectors keep rising? Share your thoughts in the comments.