#美联储政策预期 Dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have fueled market expectations for rate cuts, with CME data showing the probability of a December rate cut rising to 82.7%. This shift in expectations has directly impacted risk assets, with the Nasdaq surging 2.69% and Bitcoin briefly breaking through the $89,000 mark. On-chain data shows no significant changes in capital flows for now, but close attention should be paid to changes in institutional investors’ positions. Although short-term bullish sentiment is heating up, it is advisable to remain cautious and wait for more economic data to be released before making any decisions. In particular, the upcoming retail data and core PCE index will be key factors influencing the year-end market trend.