Everyone's talking about the four-year cycle peak? Let the data speak—it’s not that simple.

It’s true that Bitcoin’s tops have landed right on the “four-year curse” timeline, but if you look back at history, you’ll see—halvings have never been the real driving force.

The truth lies along another line: global liquidity.

Looking back at the last three bull runs:
• 2013? The US Fed opened the floodgates.
• 2017 takeoff? The ECB, Bank of Japan, and PBOC printed money together.
• 2020 surge? Epic quantitative easing.

Every time, it’s because there was too much money, economies inflated, and hot money poured into crypto. Halving? It just happened to coincide on the timeline.

There’s an indicator that sees through this logic—PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index):
Drop below 50, market contracts
Break above 50, recovery starts
Break through 55, Bitcoin takes off
Soar to 60, altcoins go wild

Check the charts—it matches every time.

So why is this cycle underperforming? Because the script went wrong.
Halving came on time... but liquidity didn’t follow. PMI couldn’t rise, and the Fed is still tightening (QT), pulling liquidity out. In 2025, the market is a mess, and the fundamental reason is that the liquidity cycle hasn’t even started.

But the turning point is here.

QT is ending. Rates are moving down. Liquidity is turning around. PMI is bottoming and rebounding. Institutional money is flooding in through ETFs and other channels.

History tells us: There’s never been a true bear market during a liquidity expansion phase.

So here’s the question—
Has the four-year cycle really “failed”?
Or was it always a false narrative, just coincidentally overlapping with the liquidity cycle, creating an illusion?

Maybe, the real bull market is just getting started.