The Battle for the New Fed Chair: Dovish Rate Cut Stance and Crypto Position Become Key Variables

Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

Original Title: Countdown to the Fed’s “Leadership Change”: Spotlight on 5 Top Candidates—Who Will Be the Final Winner?

As 2025 comes to an end, the time for current Fed Chair Jerome Powell to step down is drawing closer, and speculation over the next Federal Reserve chair continues in the markets.

According to previous statements by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the shortlist has been narrowed down to 5 candidates, including “Trump camp figure” Kevin Hassett and hawkish Kevin Warsh. The eventual winner among these five will helm the Federal Reserve—the “heart of the US economy and finance”—for years to come.

Currently, on Polymarket’s “Trump’s Fed Chair Nominee” prediction market, Hassett leads with a 74% probability. However, given Trump’s history of unpredictability, there is still suspense until the final result is announced. In this article, Odaily Planet Daily provides a brief introduction to the five current Fed chair nominees for readers’ reference.

Fed Chair Candidate Playoffs: From 11 to 5, and Selecting 1

In August this year, when the Trump administration was evaluating candidates for the next Fed chair, there were still 11 names on the list.

At the time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the review would begin in September and all candidates were “extremely strong.” Among them, Jefferies’ Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder, and Fed officials Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman were all considered open toward cryptocurrencies.

By the end of October, the list had been narrowed to five, and among the four “crypto-friendly” candidates, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder and Fed officials Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman made the cut. This shows that the Trump administration continues to use a “crypto-friendly” filter for Fed chair candidates. As for former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, his hawkish stance brought him attention, but he may be included only to appear fair.

On December 1, Trump declared, “I know who I’ll pick for Fed Chair, and I’ll announce it very soon.” Combined with earlier statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the decision is expected before Christmas. Below are brief profiles of the five current Fed chair candidates, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily for your reference.

“Top Contender”: Kevin Hassett, National Economic Council Director, Trump Camp, Crypto-Friendliness: High

At the end of November, sources revealed that as the selection process for the new Fed chair entered its final weeks, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett had become the top frontrunner in the eyes of White House advisers and Trump allies.

The reason is simple: based on available information, if nominated, Hassett would become Trump’s “dovish anchor” within the independent central bank, embedding Trump’s rate-cutting philosophy into the Fed—one of Trump’s main criticisms of current chair Powell.

The appointment of the Fed chair and governors has always been considered one of the president’s greatest levers of power for influencing central bank policy. During Trump’s first term, he nominated Powell, but later regretted his decision when Powell failed to deliver rate cuts at the expected pace.

In economic policy, Hassett is undoubtedly a loyal Trump supporter and a vocal “rate-cut advocate.” He previously declared that if he were to lead the Fed, “I would cut rates immediately, because the data supports that decision.” He also said, “If I were running the Fed, investing in world-class forecasters who build nonlinear time-series models would be wise. I believe leaders with this understanding will help the Fed perform better.”

Furthermore, he is crypto-friendly, views Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, and may push for regulatory relaxation in the crypto market. According to a Bloomberg report in June, as an advisor to US crypto exchange Coinbase, Hassett holds at least $1 million, and possibly up to $5 million, in Coinbase stock.

“Hawkish Candidate”: Kevin Warsh, Former Fed Governor, Crypto-Friendliness: Low

Kevin Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, has experience handling the 2008 financial crisis; he is also a Hoover Institution fellow. His policy stance is hawkish, favoring tighter rates, prioritizing inflation control, and advocating for a shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet. Clearly, he’s not a “rate-cut advocate,” and despite being a key figure in the Republican economic circle, he doesn’t align closely with Trump’s economic policies.

His stance on crypto is somewhat ambiguous.

In early 2021 in a CNBC interview, he said, “In an environment where the dollar is weakening, it makes sense for Bitcoin to be part of a portfolio.” In 2022, he invested in Bitwise, a major BTC and ETH ETF asset manager. By that measure, he could be considered “crypto-friendly,” but unlike Trump, he does not openly oppose the CBDC digital dollar—quite the contrary, he supports it.

Notably, he previously worked as VP/ED in Morgan Stanley’s M&A division and, during the 2008 financial crisis, served as a bridge between the Fed and Wall Street, mediating between government agencies and major capital players.

Last November, Trump considered appointing Warsh as Treasury Secretary, potentially paving the way for him to later take over as Fed chair, but Scott Bessent ultimately became the preferred choice.

“Neutral Figure”: Christopher Waller, Current Fed Governor, Crypto-Friendliness: Medium

As a current Fed governor, Christopher Waller’s policy stance is moderately dovish, supporting gradual rate cuts. He has publicly stated that digital assets can supplement payment systems and opposes a CBDC, arguing that, with proper regulation, stablecoins can strengthen the dollar’s position.

Waller’s prudent approach may limit aggressive monetary easing and is unlikely to bring either the deep rate cuts Trump wants or the ongoing tightening favored by hawks.

Unlike some others, Waller does not have experience at major investment banks or funds, with most of his career in academia and the Fed. Since the pandemic, Wall Street has viewed him as a neutral-to-hawkish Fed governor, but he maintains a degree of independence due to limited Wall Street ties.

Importantly, Hassett’s high profile has triggered strong opposition from Wall Street and US business insiders, who are collectively working to block Trump from nominating Hassett and to protect the Fed’s independence. Waller is thus seen as a potentially suitable alternative, and as a sitting Fed official, if nominated by Trump, he would need only a single confirmation vote to take office.

“Financial Giant”: Rick Rieder, BlackRock Senior Executive, Crypto-Friendliness: High

As BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income CIO, Rick Rieder directly oversees trillions in asset allocation. He has no career as a politician, no Fed experience, and no prior government service, but has a history of Republican donations—making him a “bond king” in the eyes of some. His monetary policy stance is somewhat dovish, emphasizing that the Fed should act with caution and flexibility after reaching neutral rates.

As a current BlackRock executive, his crypto-friendly attitude is unquestioned. He has called Bitcoin “the gold of the 21st century,” and believes that in an environment where traditional assets are increasingly correlated, crypto offers unique hedging and risk diversification value.

However, his Wall Street capital background makes it difficult to garner sufficient political support in the current environment. The Fed, as an independent central bank, is naturally at odds with Wall Street, and cannot be seen as taking orders from financiers. Thus, his chances of being appointed are relatively low.

“Transparent Long Shot”: Michelle Bowman, Current Fed Governor, Crypto-Friendliness: Medium

As a current Fed governor, Michelle Bowman was early on labeled hawkish by Democrats for “speaking for big banks,” but now her public stance is neutral to dovish on monetary policy.

In August, she said, “Given concerns about the labor market and the US economy, we should cut rates three times this year.” She worries that further delay could “worsen labor market conditions and further slow economic growth.”

In October, she stated publicly, “I still expect two more rate cuts before year-end.”

Her family owns a small bank, and she previously served as a bank commissioner. She has criticized regulators for being overly cautious on crypto and supports loosening restrictions for banks and the regulatory system.

Nevertheless, given her banking background and earlier statements, she is most likely just along for the ride in the Fed chair nomination process.

As of this writing, on Polymarket’s “Trump’s Fed Chair Nominee” prediction market:

• Hassett is at 74%
• Kevin Warsh at 13%
• Christopher Waller at 5.3%
• Scott Bessent at 3.4%
• Rick Rieder at 2.9%
• Michelle Bowman at 1.6%

Will Polymarket, as it successfully predicted Trump’s win in last year’s US presidential election, also correctly forecast this year’s new Fed chair nominee? Let’s wait and see.