#比特币对比代币化黄金 $BTC Weekend Night Market View:

The chart signals are very clear—the hourly chart is repeatedly oscillating within a wedge range. Weekend trading is always light; if it breaks above the upper edge, it will head towards the position indicated by the white arrow. Only if it loses the lower edge will the downtrend continue. Stuck in the middle? Then it will keep grinding sideways.

From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, the 1:1 target for this correction at 89298 has long been reached, even exceeding expectations with a wick to the 138.2% extension (giving an extra thousand dollars or so). If the price tests the 1.618 line and then rebounds, the premise is that it must not reclaim 90,000—once 90,000 is recovered and a new higher high is formed, it's unlikely to touch 1.618 again. At most, it might retest the 138.2% level around 88,000, form a double bottom structure, and continue upward. Personally, I’m optimistic—the current drop should be wrapping up.

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Right-side trading reference: If 89778 is broken with volume, you can chase longs, targeting the 90869-91533 range; if 89212 is broken with volume and the pullback is weak, chase shorts on the right side—remember to set a stop-loss. On the hourly level, only a true hold above 89778 establishes the bullish logic.

On the 4-hour timeframe, if 89157 is broken, watch the 87494-88033 support zone; if it fails to recover, it may revisit the previous low at 88033.

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Looking at the 4-hour structure: both the EMA20 and 50 have been breached; only when these two lines are regained will the 4-hour timeframe be considered strong again. The key now is that this correction hasn’t made a lower low—highs and lows are still rising. Unless the price breaks below 83797, as indicated by the white arrow in the chart, the bullish trend structure remains intact. The large white box marking the ascending channel is still valid. Since there hasn't even been a lower low, what's there to panic about?

My interpretation of yesterday’s sell-off: it’s the last shakeout before rate cut expectations are confirmed. It creates a panic atmosphere in the market, making retail investors feel “I can’t hold on anymore.” Once the rate cut finally happens, there’s room to rally. Of course, this is just my personal judgment, for reference only.

$BTC