Next week, two key meetings could trigger a sensitive period in the cryptocurrency market, and investors need to reassess their position risks.

Let's first look at historical patterns. Every time a policy meeting involving virtual assets is held domestically, the market tends to digest regulatory expectations in advance — capital prefers to avoid risk rather than increase positions. This phenomenon has been repeatedly verified in past cycles. Recently, the logic on the US side has shown a subtle change: previously, policy clarification was often interpreted as positive, but after several recent meetings, we see increased selling pressure, which may be related to large traders using news to do swing trading; retail investors’ holding experiences have noticeably worsened.

The upcoming time window requires even greater caution. The SEC’s crypto privacy roundtable on January 15 directly affects subsequent enforcement measures, and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on the 19th influences global liquidity — the yen interest rate adjustment will affect the flow of arbitrage funds. The overlap of these two events can easily amplify market sentiment.

In this environment, rather than blindly guessing the top and bottom, it’s better to control your positions, observe the actual flow of funds, and then make decisions. When volatility rises, discipline in operations is more important than predicting the direction.