Quantum Breakthrough in 2028? The Ultimate Countdown to Blockchain Security Has Begun

By 2028, an invisible “cryptography revolution” may be on the horizon before the US presidential election. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s statement at the Devconnect conference in Buenos Aires instantly became a hot topic in the crypto community—when will quantum computing truly threaten our digital assets?

This is not alarmist. Approximately $1 trillion in digital assets worldwide rely on elliptic curve cryptography for protection, and advances in quantum computing are rewriting the timeline of this race. After tech giant IBM successfully cracked a 6-bit elliptic curve key with a 133-qubit machine, this issue has shifted from theoretical to practical—it’s only a matter of time.

The Hidden Crisis: Why Elliptic Curve Cryptography Is So Critical

Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum operate securely thanks to a seemingly simple yet highly clever cryptographic framework. Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) uses asymmetric encryption to bind users’ private keys and public keys within complex mathematical relationships—you can easily generate a public key from a private key, but reversing the process is nearly impossible.

This one-way property is like a combination lock. To crack a 256-bit ECDSA signature with traditional computers requires about 2,300 logical qubits, 10¹² to 10¹³ quantum operations, plus error correction, which in turn demands hundreds of thousands to hundreds of millions of physical qubits—an astronomical number for current technology.

However, quantum computing is changing the game.

The Reality of Quantum Threats: The Power of Shor’s Algorithm

Quantum computing is dangerous because it can use Shor’s algorithm to transform “almost unsolvable” problems on classical computers into “relatively easy” period-finding problems on quantum computers. This is a fatal weakness of asymmetric encryption.

Current progress is indeed eye-opening. IBM’s quantum system has successfully solved 6-bit elliptic curve public key equations using a Shor-like quantum attack—though this is still several orders of magnitude below the 256-bit strength used by Bitcoin and Ethereum, it proves that quantum computing is heading in this direction.

Current quantum computers have only 100-400 noisy qubits, with high error rates and short coherence times. But these numbers are growing exponentially.

Timeline Disputes: Why Experts Have Differing Opinions

There is a clear divergence within the industry regarding when the quantum threat will materialize.

Vitalik predicts elliptic curve cryptography could be broken by 2028. Scott Aaronson, director of the Texas Quantum Information Center, also believes fault-tolerant quantum computers could appear before the next US presidential election. But physicist David M. Antonelli takes a conservative stance, arguing that even the most optimistic forecasts only project a few thousand physical qubits by 2030, far below what’s needed to break current cryptography.

Former Google engineer Graham Cook bluntly states: the fundamental mathematics behind Bitcoin remains “unbreakable.” He vividly illustrates this—80 billion people, each with a billion supercomputers, trying a billion combinations per second, would still need over 10⁴⁰ years, while the universe is only about 14 billion years old.

The Risk Map: The Fragility of One Trillion Dollars in Assets

If elliptic curve cryptography is truly broken, the potential losses would be catastrophic. Currently, digital assets secured by ECC-256 amount to about $1 trillion, distributed across various blockchain networks. Vitalik estimates that by 2030, the probability of quantum computers breaking modern cryptography is 20%.

Even more concerning is the threat of “capture now, decrypt later.” Attackers could store encrypted data now and decrypt it once quantum technology matures—raising alarms at the sovereign level.

In August this year, El Salvador proactively redistributed its 6,284 Bitcoin (worth $681 million) across 14 different addresses, with no single address holding more than 500 coins. Behind this seemingly odd decision lies a preemptive measure against quantum threats—“limiting funds per address reduces exposure to quantum risks.”

Countermeasures: The Post-Quantum Era Has Already Begun

Fortunately, the crypto world is not unprepared. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms are being accelerated worldwide.

Ethereum has already laid out plans. Vitalik has written extensively on quantum-resistant schemes like Winternitz signatures and STARKs, even considering emergency upgrade contingencies. The Bitcoin community has proposed multiple potential algorithm upgrades, including Dilithium, Falcon, and SPHINCS+.

Global government agencies are also acting swiftly. The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) released a roadmap for post-quantum cryptography migration: completing risk assessments and migration planning by 2028, executing high-priority migrations by 2031, and completing full system upgrades by 2035. The European Commission has set milestones for 2026→2030→2035.

Traditional financial institutions are also preparing. From 2020 to 2024, over 345 blockchain-related investments have been made globally. HSBC conducted a pilot using post-quantum encryption protocols in early 2024.

Rational Judgment: The Threat Is Real but Not Imminent

Quantum threats undoubtedly exist, but there’s no need for panic. Haseeb, managing partner of Dragonfly, points out that cracking a number with Shor’s algorithm requires computational resources vastly different from those needed for factoring hundreds-digit numbers.

The current IBM quantum computer cracking a 6-bit elliptic curve key is like a toy compared to the 256-bit strength used in practice. There is still ample time window for system upgrades before a real threat emerges.

Quantum threats are more like a long-term catalyst for evolution. The blockchain ecosystem has already begun adapting—whether through El Salvador’s diversified asset strategy or global post-quantum cryptography migration plans, the industry is responding proactively to future challenges.

When the “lock” of elliptic curve cryptography faces threats, the creators of the lock are already preparing stronger new locks.