#TRUMP

From Peak to Abyss: The Burst of the Bubble Behind the Continuous Fall of TRUMP Coin and Market Warnings

In 2025, the global cryptocurrency market experienced a storm ignited by celebrity effects and extinguished by the reality gap. The meme coin (Meme Coin) named after former U.S. President Donald Trump, TRUMP Coin, once reached a historical high of $75.35 in January, with a market capitalization surpassing $80 billion, making it the most dazzling "star asset" in the crypto world. However, just a few months later, the price of this token plummeted by over ninety percent, dropping to around $4.93 by December 2025, resulting in a shocking "roller coaster" crash. This continuous decline not only evaporated the wealth of millions of investors but also exposed the deep structural risks and regulatory vacuum in the cryptocurrency market.

1. Enthusiastic Start: The Dual Boost of Policy Expectations and Celebrity Effects

The rise of TRUMP coin is not based on any actual business or technological support, but rather precisely hits the market's strong expectations for "pro-crypto" policies. From the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, as Trump wins the presidential election, the market generally expects his administration to promote regulatory reforms favorable to the development of cryptocurrencies. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has surged strongly, with record inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, and the entire industry is welcoming a "narrative bull market."

On January 18, 2025, TRUMP coin officially went online, with an opening price of $0.1824. Within two hours, the trading volume exceeded $1.3 billion, quickly soaring to $75.35. Behind this surge is the ultimate monetization of the Trump family brand influence. According to public information, the total supply of this token is 1 billion coins, of which about 80% is held by two subsidiaries of the Trump Group, with a three-year unlocking plan set. This highly concentrated holding structure lays the groundwork for subsequent price manipulation and "pump and dump" schemes.

2. Bubble Burst: From Internal Selling to Market Confidence Collapse

The real turning point occurred in February 2025. First, Melania Trump launched her personal token MELANIA coin, causing TRUMP coin to fall by 60% within 30 minutes, and the market realized for the first time that the "celebrity effect" is not limitless. Soon after, the entire crypto market entered a correction period, with Bitcoin dropping 15% in a month and a market capitalization evaporating by over $810 billion.

More critically, the fundamentals of Trump's associated enterprises continue to deteriorate:
- The stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) has fallen over 70% from its peak at the beginning of the year, hovering at historical lows;
- The stock price of "American Bitcoin," founded by Eric Trump, fell by 30%. Hut8's Q1 revenue decreased by 58% year-on-year, with a net loss of $134 million;
- Since August, the Trump family's wealth has shrunk by about $1 billion due to the depreciation of crypto assets, falling from $7.7 billion in early September to $6.7 billion.

This data reveals a harsh reality: "concept coins" without cash flow support will ultimately be ruthlessly abandoned by the market. When the pace of policy advancement is far below expectations, and investors begin to question whether "Trump will really fulfill his pro-crypto promises," confidence rapidly collapses, leading to a wave of sell-offs.

3. Chain Reaction: Retail Investors Suffer Losses, Frequent Liquidations, Institutions Exit

The fall of TRUMP coin is not an isolated event, but has triggered a series of chain reactions:
- Retail investors become the biggest losers: According to blockchain data analysis, during the peak period of TRUMP coin, only 58 wallets made a profit of 1.1 billion dollars, while over 764,000 retail wallets fell into losses, a typical "wealth harvesting game";
- Leverage liquidation was brutal: On January 21, 2025, TRUMP coin fell by 18.57% within 24 hours, with a liquidation amount reaching 58.96 million USD; during the same period, MELANIA coin plummeted by 59%, with liquidations exceeding 18 million USD;
- Institutional funds withdrawal: Nearly $1 billion was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs in February, with long-term holders accelerating their sell-off. On-chain data shows that over 815,000 Bitcoins were sold in the past 30 days, setting a new high for the year;
- Unfavorable macro environment: The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts in December, inflationary pressures remain, and risk assets are facing systemic selling pressure.

In this storm, the most vulnerable are always the ordinary investors who enter with leverage. They are attracted by the "get-rich-quick myth" but become the "bag holders" when prices collapse.

4. Deep Reflection: The Essence of Celebrity Tokens and the Lack of Regulation

The rise and fall of TRUMP coin is essentially a high-risk speculative experiment based on fan economy. Ding Zhaofei, chief analyst of HashKey Group, bluntly stated: "This is a typical Meme coin, with no commodity attributes, driven entirely by emotions." Although the issuer claims it is "not an investment opportunity or security," it deliberately blurs the boundaries during the marketing process, using the public influence of political figures to induce investment.

What is even more concerning is that the boundary between power and capital is becoming blurred. When a politician controls a massive amount of crypto assets through a family company, their policy direction may directly affect market pricing, easily leading to conflicts of interest and a crisis of public trust. Currently, there are no specific regulatory laws in the United States regarding the issuance of tokens by politicians, and existing securities laws struggle to cover new decentralized financial products, making regulatory lag a systemic risk.

V. Future Outlook: Rule Reconstruction and Rational Return

Every bubble burst is an opportunity for market education. The TRUMP coin incident may promote the following changes:
1. Strengthen information disclosure and position transparency: Require celebrity tokens to disclose actual controllers, unlock plans, and fund usage;
2. Establish a conflict of interest firewall: Limit the participation of current or campaigning politicians in the issuance of cryptocurrency projects;
3. Enhance investor protection mechanisms: The platform should introduce technologies such as "emotional circuit breakers" and AI monitoring to prevent manipulation and fraud;
4. Guide value investment to replace speculative culture: Encourage the development of blockchain projects based on real applications and cash flow.

Decentralized exchanges like XBIT are attempting to build a safer trading ecosystem through strict reviews, smart contract audits, and AI risk control systems, providing investors with an "information filter."

Conclusion: Speculation can be a choice, but credibility must be a system.

The story of TRUMP coin is a mirror that reflects the frenzy, fragility, and immaturity of the cryptocurrency market. It reminds us that hype can drive up prices, but only value can preserve wealth. For investors, identifying the three key elements behind celebrity tokens - the completeness of information disclosure, the concentration of holdings, and the boundaries of public resources - is the first line of defense against risks.

For society, this trial and error should not be borne entirely by the group with the least ability to recognize. Prices will eventually fluctuate, narratives will change, but only by establishing clear rules, verifiable facts, and institutional credibility can the financial market truly mature.

Finding certainty in chaos may be the greatest revelation that TRUMP coin leaves to the world.