2025.12.24 crypto world daily market analysis

Core Market Overview

On that day, the overall crypto world showed a weak oscillating trend, with the core trigger for the decline being the preliminary value of the U.S. third-quarter annualized GDP growth rate recorded at 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%. This led to a rebound of the U.S. dollar, causing a sharp drop in the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January. Funds flowed out of the high-risk crypto market, while safe-haven funds poured into gold and silver, pushing them to new highs. As of 10 AM on December 24, Bitcoin was hovering around $87,500, and Ethereum was fluctuating around $2,960. Both experienced a slight rebound after dipping in the early morning, but the rebound momentum was insufficient, and they faced obvious pressure afterward. Meanwhile, at the end of the year, institutions showed a counter-cyclical buying stance, and U.S. crypto regulation welcomed breakthroughs, providing favorable support for long-term industry development, although the short-term weak trend is difficult to change.

Mainstream coin detailed analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

1. Price Trend: After dipping to a low of $86,500 in the early morning, it rebounded to $88,400, but subsequent selling pressure led to a pullback. Currently, it is consolidating around $87,500, forming a typical "crow" bearish pattern on the daily chart, and has broken below all key moving averages such as EMA7 and EMA30, with short-term bullish sentiment remaining low.
2. Key levels: The main resistance above is primarily at 88400 USD (4-hour Bollinger Band middle line), 89500 USD (daily Bollinger Band middle line), with a core resistance level at 90000 USD; support below focuses on 86500 USD (the low point from early this morning), with strong support at 85300 USD (daily Bollinger Band lower line). If this support is broken, it will trigger a deep correction.
3. Indicator signals: The DIF and DEA of the 4-hour MACD are crossing downwards below the zero line with an expanding gap, indicating that bears are dominant but the momentum is slightly decreasing; the 4-hour RSI is near the oversold zone, suggesting a possibility of a short-term technical rebound, but the strength is expected to be limited; the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart are narrowing, and the short-term volatility range continues to shrink.

Ethereum (ETH)

1. Price trend: The trend is similar to BTC. After touching the key support of 2900 USD in the early morning, it rebounded but encountered resistance at the psychological barrier of 3000 USD, currently fluctuating around 2960 USD. Overall, there is no clear trend guidance, with bulls and bears tugging around the range of 2900-3000 USD.
2. Key levels: The main resistance above is $3000 (a psychological level for bulls and bears), $3050 (the middle line of the daily Bollinger Bands); the short-term support below is $2900, and if it falls below this level, it will further test the range of $2850-$2800, which is the core defense level for the day.
3. Indicator Signals: The daily level shows signs of a bullish sentiment turning bearish, and after the release of the bearish sentiment at the 6-hour level, a turning signal appeared; the short-term lacks upward momentum, and if it cannot break through the $3000 level, the subsequent downward risk will continue to rise.

Core market influencing factors

1. Macroeconomic level: The US third-quarter GDP exceeded expectations, disrupting the interest rate cut rhythm. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January has surged to 87%, with a cut probability of only 13%. Crypto assets are sensitive to liquidity, and high interest rate expectations directly suppress coin prices; however, former US President Trump’s strong call for an interest rate cut introduces variables into future policy directions, which may trigger short-term market fluctuations.
2. Funds and institutional levels: Recently, retail investors have been panic selling, while institutions are buying against the trend. ARK Invest has increased its holdings in Coinbase and Circle-related stocks, and multiple funds are positioning themselves in Bitcoin spot and ETFs. Although long-term holders are experiencing selling pressure, the peak of selling may be approaching, and the battle between long and short funds has entered a critical stage.
3. Industry policy level: Long-term positive outlook for the industry is clear, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency allows crypto companies like Ripple and Circle to build "national trust banks," further legitimizing crypto assets; Hong Kong licensed digital asset exchange HashKey successfully goes public, strengthening the Asian Web3 strategy and paving the way for industry compliance.
4. Emotion and liquidity aspect: The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index remains in the "fear" range at 29, showing strong investor hesitation; the overall market liquidity tightens towards the end of the year, compounded by the $24 billion Bitcoin options expiry this Friday, with long and short positions battling around $85,000 (bearish) and $100,000 (bullish), which may intensify short-term market fluctuations.

Practical Trading Reference

1. Bitcoin: Focus on short positions with rebounds, enter short positions lightly in the rebound range of 89500-90500 USD, with a stop loss of 500 USD and a target below 88500 USD; if it dips to the range of 85300-86300 USD, consider entering long positions lightly, with a stop loss of 500 USD and a target above 87300 USD. Do not chase highs or sell lows, strictly control your position size.
2. Ethereum: For short-term trades, you can rely on the support at 2900 for light long positions, with quick entries and exits, targeting 2980-3000 USD. If it breaks above 3000 USD, you can slightly increase your position; if it doesn’t break, take profits in time. For medium-term, focus on shorting at highs, setting up when there’s pressure at 3000-3050 USD, with a stop loss of 30 points, targeting below 2950. If it breaks below the support at 2900, you can increase your position down to the 2850-2800 range.
3. Core Reminder: Focus on range trading thinking during the day, as the current trend is not clear. Avoid heavily betting on a single direction; for trading to earn Alpha points, prioritize trading pairs on Gate Layer or BNB Chain to control costs, and steer clear of currently volatile coins to reduce additional losses.