On the surface, the market seems to be stuck, but in reality, each dip is testing the bottom line. Yesterday, Ethereum hit a hard cap of $3,000 and then started to soften, now it’s oscillating around the four-hour moving averages. Both sides are watching cautiously; the bulls don’t dare to push aggressively upward, and the bears are accumulating strength, with decreasing volatility — this is a classic sign of an impending trend reversal. My judgment is that the price center is gradually shifting downward, but it’s still too early to draw conclusions. Whether key support levels can hold will be the real watershed in the next phase.

Ethereum has recently underperformed Bitcoin noticeably. Not only is the exchange rate weak, but capital is also continuously withdrawing. Over in the US, Ethereum spot ETF net outflows have persisted for several days, clearly indicating that major institutions are not optimistic in the short term. The technical pattern is even more painful — Bollinger Bands are narrowing, short-term moving averages are trying to rise, but the price is far from the medium- and long-term averages, with strong resistance pulling it back. In this situation, short-term traders can still find opportunities within narrow ranges, but friends with medium- and long-term strategies should maintain a calm mindset, clarify the direction before acting.

Both bulls and bears are gathering strength. Optimists point out that the decline has been deep and a rebound is imminent; some technical indicators are indeed in oversold territory. But the bears’ positions are more solid: once key supports are broken, a chain reaction could be triggered, and the downward space should not be underestimated. It’s worth noting that despite the weakening price, open interest in futures is actually increasing, indicating that there is still a large amount of leveraged capital in the market that has not yet cut losses. Once the direction becomes clear, the volatility could be quite terrifying. On-chain data also issues a warning — some large holders are starting to transfer coins to exchanges, and combined with the market’s cautious sentiment, bears currently hold the upper hand.