This doesn't look like a bear market.

Price declines do not end bull markets; it's the loss of confidence that does.

That's why the unrealized profit/loss indicator (NUPL) is important here.

The adjusted NUPL indicator shows the true state of investors — in terms of unrealized profit or loss — rather than just reacting to the price. It currently indicates a very specific state.

Short-term investors are harmed. And that's not surprising. They chased the rise, fell into the retracement trap, and feel the pressure. This is what usually happens during corrections, not crashes.

Long-term investors are the core. They are still making profits.

Historically, when short-term investors incur losses while long-term investors remain profitable, the market typically undergoes a reset. Weaker-positioned investors close their positions. Stronger-positioned investors absorb the sell-off. The market structure remains stable.

This is quite different from a true bear market.

In true bear market bottoms, everyone is harmed. Long-term investors give up. Unrealized losses spread across the entire market. Confidence is shaken. But we are not witnessing that.

This also explains why the price feels heavy without collapsing. There is selling pressure, but it comes from new investors, not from long-term holders clinging to their positions for years.

The danger here is not in another red candle appearing, but in long-term investors slipping into losses. As long as this line holds, it seems more like a redistribution and patience test, not a market collapse.

This is a zone of sharp volatility that pushes investors out of their positions, not usually the end of trends. Watch market behavior, not fear. 👀
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