2025-12-31 13:28:25

Programmers' logic for making money in the prediction market sounds simple but the threshold is actually quite high—it's not about guessing ups and downs, but about using code to continuously capture moments of pricing failure. This is not a rumor; it has long been confirmed by a bunch of real trading data.

An experienced trader used the simplest cross-market arbitrage, and in just a month and a half, made a profit of $242,000. During the same period, another trader scanned hundreds of related markets and earned $480,000 through a spread regression strategy. Even more impressive, someone directly used an AI probability model, and in two months, earned $2.2 million, with a prediction hit rate stabilized at 74%.

These are not isolated cases—they reflect a deeper reality: there are many opportunities created by mispricing in the prediction market, and algorithmic trading is systematically eating away at these errors.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
4
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

AirdropDreamer

· 5h ago

Really impressive, but only programmers can reap this wave of benefits. --- 2.2 million in two months? Are these numbers real? It feels a bit suspicious. --- So can I still get on board now? The threshold seems to be getting higher and higher. --- Arbitrage has long been blocked by institutions. Do individual players still have a chance? --- Those who understand code really make money. We retail investors are just giving money away. --- A 74% hit rate sounds unbelievable. How much data is needed to verify that? --- Market prediction is essentially price discovery. Programmers have truly grasped the essence. --- Bro, $240,000 in one and a half months? Thank goodness I didn't hear it wrong. --- Pricing errors are fleeting. Without high-frequency trading infrastructure, you simply can't keep up. --- This is true alpha, not the low-level gamble of betting on ups and downs.

View OriginalReply0

PebbleHander

· 5h ago

Code pricing failure, making money from information asymmetry --- 2.2 million in two months? Forget it, that number is still far from me --- Basically, AI is exploiting arbitrage; we need to learn how to use tools --- Cross-market arbitrage sounds simple, but how much computing power is actually needed to operate? --- 74% hit rate stable? I feel like it's more reliable than big V influencers in the crypto world haha --- Programmers have a natural advantage in arbitrage; those without coding skills are destined to be cut out --- This thing's threshold isn't that low; you need to understand trading + programming + market microstructure --- Machines are exploiting mispricing; in the era of AI, those who don't adopt will fall behind --- 480,000 in a month and a half? I'm still worried about monthly rent; the gap is huge

View OriginalReply0

PensionDestroyer

· 5h ago

2.2 million in two months? That number is outrageous, is the probability model really that powerful? This thing indeed relies on arbitrage, but I have some doubts about the 74% hit rate. Cross-market arbitrage is definitely a programmer's game, but with such fierce competition now, is there still a chance? It's all AI models now, can there still be gaps in this market? Feels almost saturated. I just want to know what framework this guy is using, is it real-time data scraping or something else? 240,000 in a month and a half isn't a big deal, but the key is whether the continuous performance can be maintained. Pricing failure isn't just a short-term phenomenon, can arbitrage still be possible in the long run?

View OriginalReply0

RektButSmiling

· 5h ago

Relying on code to make a living is indeed tough, but this data sounds a bit suspicious. --- 74% hit rate? I feel like this guy is just storytelling. --- Basically, it's still about information gaps and execution speed. Code is just a tool. --- If programming is the most direct way to monetize, then why am I still writing CRUD? --- Money in market prediction is so easy to make, why are there still so many poor programmers? --- That's why AI + quant can beat retail investors; the gap is really big. --- 2.2 million in two months? I thought I wasn't good enough, but now I realize I really am not. --- Wait, does this count as forward-looking bias? Things that come out of historical data always look good. --- Cross-market arbitrage might have worked ten years ago, but now the competition is fierce. --- Does a programmer only need to understand code? Financial logic is the real challenge. --- Here comes another IQ tax, I believe in your nonsense.

View OriginalReply0