The Greedy Trap in Prediction Markets: Why Silence Triggers Collective Misjudgment

In prediction markets like Polymarket, "getting to the end" seems like a winning strategy, but it actually harbors risks.

The silence of project teams often acts as a trigger. When there is no new official information, the market doesn't wait—traders start to fill in the gaps with their own assumptions, emotions drive price fluctuations, and a group of people make the same incorrect judgment.

Take the case of trader Gugugagaaa as an example. This trade once had an unrealized profit of $36,000, with a position return of +400%. It sounds astonishing, but he didn't close the position. The result is obvious—the paper gains eventually vanished into thin air.

This is not an isolated case. Market psychology tells us that when the profit curve continues to rise, people's judgment tends to decline. Watching the account numbers grow, few can calmly say "enough." But in the zero-sum game of prediction markets, greed is often the most expensive tuition fee.

The true winners are not the ones who get to the end.