Friday's Wheat Market: Mixed Signals Amid Shifting Global Supply

GasFeeCrybaby · 2025-12-31T15:10:13+00:00

Wheat markets displayed mixed movements with Chicago SRW futures rising while Kansas City HRW contracts fell. Export commitments surged 21.8% year-over-year, driven by strong international demand, and South Korea made significant purchases.

GasFeeCrybaby

2025-12-31 15:10:13

Abstract generation in progress

The wheat markets painted a nuanced picture during Friday’s overnight grain trade, with different contracts moving in distinct directions. Chicago SRW futures climbed 2 cents in near-month deliveries, while Kansas City HRW contracts edged downward with minor losses. Meanwhile, Minneapolis spring wheat outperformed peers, posting gains of 4 to 5 cents as the session progressed.

Export Demand Surges While Russian Crop Remains Steady

Wheat export commitments have reached an impressive 18.94 MMT (696 million bushels), representing a 21.8% jump compared to the same period last year—a signal that international demand remains robust. On the supply front, SovEcon’s latest assessment pegged Russia’s 2026 wheat crop at 83.8 MMT, holding steady from the prior estimate though down 5 MMT year-over-year.

Overnight Grain Trade Reshapes Market Dynamics

Significant purchasing activity dominated overnight sessions, with South Korea securing 50,000 MT of wheat from the United States alongside 9,200 MT from Canada. This buying spree underscores ongoing appetite for North American supply. Meanwhile, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange bumped up Argentina’s wheat crop projection to 27.1 MMT, a 1.6 MMT increase from previous estimates, suggesting adequate southern hemisphere supplies.

Contract-by-Contract Price Action

The March 26 CBOT wheat contract settled at $5.09 3/4, maintaining its 2-cent gain, while May delivery climbed to $5.20 3/4, also up 2 cents. Kansas City’s March contract dipped fractionally to $5.16 1/2, with May slightly lower at $5.28 3/4, both down half a cent. Minneapolis spring wheat showed the strongest performance: March futures at $5.77 3/4 (up 4 3/4 cents) and May at $5.88 (up 5 cents).

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