2025-12-31 19:33:06

Here's an interesting angle from the prediction markets: traders are increasingly betting against SCOTUS upholding Trump's tariff policies.

On Kalshi's platform, the odds have shifted dramatically. Just a month ago, "Yes" (Supreme Court upholds) was sitting in the low 20s. But fast forward to year-end? The consensus has swung to 36% on upholding, with 64% implied probability going the other way.

What's driving the shift? December started relatively calm, but over the past week the market picked up momentum as new developments emerged. The prediction market is essentially pricing in growing skepticism about whether the Court will side with the administration on tariff authority.

It's a reminder of how these decentralized prediction platforms capture real-time sentiment and expectations—sometimes faster than traditional polling or analysis.

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CoffeeNFTs

· 9h ago

Prediction markets are playing tricks again. On Kalshi, everyone is betting that SCOTUS will oppose tariffs. The logic is a bit extreme. --- Wait, going from over 20% to 36% and still calling it opposition? I don't quite understand this number game. --- The recent week has seen a sudden change in sentiment. Something big must have happened... Prediction markets react very quickly. --- NGO market is pricing in advance. This move is much more sensitive than polls. --- If the tariff policy is really overturned, then the recent rebound is pointless. --- Kalshi's platform should have been popular long ago. It captures market expectations more accurately than CNN. --- A 64% odds favoring opposition... indicating that big players are hedging their risks.

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FUDwatcher

· 9h ago

Wow, the reversal on Kalshi is amazing. In just one month, it jumped from over 20 to 36. The market's intuition is truly incredible.

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GasFeeSobber

· 9h ago

Haha, the prediction market is once again countering policy with reverse tactics. This time, the odds of SCOTUS overturning are increasing, it's really interesting. Kalshi flipped the table in just a month; a 36% uphold probability—what does that say? The market simply doesn't believe it. Those who master real-time on-chain data are the true winners. Traditional polls have long been outdated. Wait, is this another prelude to a big show? When it comes to tariffs, the Court will ultimately have to confront it head-on. The prediction market's intuition is indeed exceptional, much faster than mainstream media. That's why I trust on-chain data even more.

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StakeOrRegret

· 9h ago

The market has already started betting that the courts will oppose the tariff policy. Interesting. --- Kalshi's data really speaks volumes. It went from over 20 to 36 in just a month, truly repricing the risk. --- In simple terms, prediction markets are much quicker than traditional analysis at sensing signals. That's the real indicator. --- A 36% uphold probability... Will the court finally surprise us? --- I can't quite understand this reversal. Is it really new developments or just market noise? --- Prediction markets are always more accurate than polls because RMB voting doesn't lie. --- Jumping from over 20 to 64% opposition in a month, the market is not feeling it. --- Actually, this might be the most genuine consensus, more reliable than any expert analysis.

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