Anonymous account betting on Maduro's arrest earns $400,000 in profit; US lawmakers propose ban on officials' "insider trading" in prediction markets

A massive profit-making trade in prediction markets is raising concerns among US Congress members about potential "insider trading" risks and legislative actions.

According to foreign media reports, New York Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres plans to introduce the "Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act" in 2026, aiming to prohibit federal officials from using non-public information to conduct "insider" trading in prediction markets.

The direct trigger for the proposal was a new anonymous account created at the end of December last year, which invested approximately $32,537 betting that Venezuelan President Maduro would step down before January 31, 2026.

After Trump announced early on January 4 that US forces had captured Maduro, this trade also achieved a net profit of over $400,000 within just 24 hours, with a return rate of 1200%, further fueling suspicions of insider information.

In response to this incident, Congressman Torres proposed extending the rules of the "Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act" (STOCK Act) to prediction markets. The proposal would prohibit federal officials, employees, and political appointees from using significant non-public information obtained through their positions to trade prediction contracts related to government policies and political outcomes. The core goal is to maintain the integrity of prediction markets and prevent insider trading for profit.

Meanwhile, another prediction platform, Kalshi, responded on its social media platform that its existing rules explicitly prohibit insiders from trading using non-public information. The involved trade also occurred on the Polymarket platform. Notably, Donald Trump Jr., Trump's eldest son, serves as an advisor for both prediction platforms, adding complexity to the situation.

Overall, this incident marks a shift of prediction markets from a relatively niche field to the spotlight of mainstream finance and political oversight. The high profits also expose the enormous potential gains and regulatory gaps for insiders leveraging government secrets to profit from prediction market trading.

Whether or not this contract involved insider trading, the controversy is likely to accelerate legislative processes and push for stricter trader identity verification and insider trading prevention mechanisms in prediction markets, which could have a profound impact on the future operation models of prediction markets.

#预测市场 #Insider Trading