Continuous Gold Rise: Will the Yellow Metal Reach $5000 in 2026?

During the current year 2025, the gold market has experienced radical developments, breaking the $4,300 per ounce barrier in mid-October before retreating back toward $4,000 in November, raising fundamental questions about its price trajectory in the coming year and the possibility of reaching new levels.

Factors Driving Demand for the Precious Metal

Investment demand peaks

Data from the World Gold Council showed that total demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons, up 3% annually, while value surged to $132 billion, an incredible increase of 45%. This sharp rise reflects increasing investor appeal, especially as 28% of new investors in developed markets are adding gold to their portfolios.

Gold ETFs( recorded record inflows, with assets under management reaching $472 billion, and holdings amounting to 3,838 tons, up 6% quarter-over-quarter, approaching the all-time peak of 3,929 tons.

) Central banks accelerate purchases

Central banks worldwide accelerated diversification of their reserves, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025, a 24% increase over the five-year average. More importantly, 44% of global central banks now hold gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024, indicating a strategic move toward reducing reliance on the dollar.

China, Turkey, and India led the buying wave, with the People’s Bank of China alone adding over 65 tons, continuing its expansion for the twenty-second consecutive month.

Supply shortage deepens the gap

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 1% annually, but this was not enough to close the widening gap between demand and supply. Recycled gold decreased by 1% during the same period, as owners preferred to hold onto their assets amid expectations of continued price increases.

Rising operational costs added further pressure, with global average extraction costs reaching around $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade, limiting production expansion.

Monetary policies determine the path

US rate cuts support prices

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025 to a range of 3.75-4.00%, marking the second cut since December 2024. Market expectations point to an additional 25 basis point cut at the current December meeting, making it the third cut this year.

BlackRock reports suggest the Fed could reach a 3.4% rate by the end of 2026 under a moderate scenario, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset.

Global trends reinforce safe-haven appeal

Major central banks took divergent paths in 2025: while the Federal Reserve began easing, the European Central Bank continued tightening, and the Bank of Japan maintained its accommodative policy. This diversity created an uncertain environment, enhancing gold’s role as a global hedge.

Macroeconomic indicators

Sovereign debt drives safe-haven demand

Global public debt exceeded 100% of GDP according to the IMF, raising increasing concerns about fiscal sustainability. Bloomberg Economics data showed that 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings in Q3 2025 as a hedge against long-term financial risks.

The dollar and real yields decline simultaneously

The dollar index fell 7.64% from its peak at the start of 2025 until November 21, influenced by rate cut expectations. Similarly, US 10-year bond yields dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% in mid-November 2025.

This dual decline boosted institutional demand for gold, as investors seek to balance away from dollar-denominated assets.

Geopolitical pressures fuel demand

Trade tensions between the US and China, along with Middle East tensions, prompted investors to increase their exposure to gold. According to Reuters, geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 increased demand by 7% year-over-year.

As tensions escalated around the Taiwan Strait and energy supply concerns grew, spot prices surged above $3,400 per ounce in July 2025. With ongoing uncertainty, gold continued its ascent, surpassing $4,300 in October.

Major analyst forecasts for 2026

Investment banks anticipate a new surge

HSBC expects gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an average forecast of $4,600 for the full year, compared to an average of $3,455 in 2025.

Bank of America raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak in 2026, with an expected average of $4,400, but warned of a short-term correction if investors start taking profits.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its outlook to $4,900 per ounce, citing stronger inflows into gold ETFs and continued central bank buying.

J.P. Morgan expects gold to reach around $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among top analysts is between $4,800 and $5,000 as a peak, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800.

Regional price forecasts

Egypt sees significant increases

According to CoinCodex forecasts, the price of gold in Egypt is likely to reach around 522,580 EGP per ounce in 2026, representing a 158.46% increase compared to current prices.

Gulf region awaits record levels

In Saudi Arabia, translating global forecasts of $5,000 per ounce at a fixed exchange rate could push the price to approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR.

In the UAE, the same forecast might give an estimate of 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

These forecasts remain contingent on currency stability and continued global demand.

Expected corrections may alter the path

Despite overall optimism, HSBC warned that upward momentum could weaken in the second half of 2026, with potential corrections toward $4,200 if investors start profit-taking. The bank ruled out a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs indicated that prices remaining above $4,800 could put markets to a “price credibility test,” especially with weak industrial demand.

However, analysts from J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift viewing it as a long-term asset rather than just a speculative tool.

Technical analysis indicates a wait-and-see phase

Based on closing prices on November 21, 2025, at $4,065.01 per ounce, gold appears to be in a neutral technical state. The price still holds the main short- to medium-term upward trend line connecting rising lows around $4,050.

$4,000 represents a strong support level; a break below could target the $3,800 zone ###50% Fibonacci retracement(. Conversely, $4,200 is the first resistance level, and surpassing it opens the way toward $4,400 and then $4,680.

The Relative Strength Index )RSI( is steady at 50, indicating a neutral state with no overbought or oversold conditions. The MACD confirms the continuation of the upward trend, although the market is in a consolidation phase before a clear new direction.

Summary: Gold’s path is the main discussion point

As the cycle of monetary tightening nears its end and the global economy enters a slowdown phase, the gold market may face a tug-of-war between profit-taking and new buying waves from central banks and institutional investors.

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to hit new historic highs approaching $5,000. Conversely, if inflation eases and market confidence returns, the metal could enter a long-term stabilization phase, preventing it from reaching ambitious levels.

In conclusion, gold price forecasts for the coming days will heavily depend on global economic and political developments, especially monetary decisions and geopolitical indicators that will shape investment behavior.