2026-01-04 11:20:34

#数字资产动态追踪 Ethereum's recent rally is already on display, and from a technical perspective, there is indeed pressure for a pullback.

My idea is this — open a small short position to test the waters, using 400u to explore the bottom. At the same time, keep 8100u of ammunition ready on the side.

The core logic is to bet on a rebound, using the short to confirm the support level. Once triggered, immediately switch strategies to go all-in on long positions. If I can catch that low point, the 400u profit potential combined with the 8100u principal of the long positions could yield a pretty good return.

Of course, the premise is that $ETH really needs to adjust; if it rebounds directly, the plan will have to change.

ETH-0,52%

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 49m ago

I have a rough understanding of the 400u bottoming out technique, just worried that you won't be able to use your 8100u ammunition.

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ServantOfSatoshi

· 3h ago

400u bottomed out at 8100u long position, I quite like this idea, just worried that ETH might do a reverse move, then it would be awkward.

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SatoshiHeir

· 01-04 11:50

It should be pointed out that your "trial-and-error short position bottom-finding" framework fundamentally violates the optimal allocation principle of the Kelly criterion. On-chain data shows that each rebound is often accompanied by large sell-offs— in other words, your 400u is very likely to be lost entirely. The correct logic should be reversed: monitor whale wallet movements rather than relying on small orders to "test the waters."

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GasGoblin

· 01-04 11:42

400 bucks bottoming out? Bro, your courage is really something. I'm just afraid that by the time you realize you've hit the bottom, it might be too late.

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AllInAlice

· 01-04 11:37

400u testing the waters is quite interesting, but I still think this wave of ETH is a bit uncertain. Your approach looks good, but I'm worried that if the direction reverses, you'll still be stubbornly holding on, and the 8100u ammunition will be wasted.

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HalfPositionRunner

· 01-04 11:35

Spending 400 bucks to test the waters and trying to bottom fish—this guy's guts are pretty big. I'm just worried he won't react in time and get slapped in the face.

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BearMarketBuyer

· 01-04 11:34

400u bottoming out? I’m familiar with this move, just worried that if it rebounds at that time, it will take off directly, and the short position will be gone in a flash. The key to this order really depends on whether the support level can hold, otherwise I’ll have to recalculate.

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