Recently, hot coins like $PEPE have been surging fiercely, and many are eager to jump in. Indeed, when the leading coin starts to move, it often drives the entire altcoin sector, and capital outflow is a normal phenomenon. But before following the trend, perhaps it's better to pause and think through these few things.

From a rebound perspective, second-tier coins like $Pengu are currently hovering around 0.012. If the market continues to trend, there is room for a rise to 0.013-0.015. However, the characteristics of the altcoin season are quick in and quick out, and it's easy to get caught off guard, so small positions are fine to try, but heavy positions are not recommended.

Looking at the main cryptocurrencies, $ETH is likely to retrace to around 3180-3200, where it can then rebound again. From a larger cycle perspective, $BTC's previous high is at 94,000, and $ETH is around 3400—current gains are more like the rhythm of a mid-2022 decline consolidation, not a major reversal.

Therefore, mid-January might mark the end of this rebound wave. If you want to short, you can wait until the end of January before the interest rate meeting to position low-leverage orders on the downside. The current prosperity, no matter how beautiful, cannot change the essence of the cycle. Whether aggressive or conservative depends on your risk tolerance.