2026-01-04 14:41:25

#2026年比特币行情展望 What will the macro environment look like in 2026? These trends are worth paying attention to.

In terms of exchange rates, the RMB against the US dollar should appreciate moderately, but don’t expect too much—bilateral fluctuations are normal, and the chance of breaking 6 next year is low. The central tendency is estimated to be in the 6.5 to 7.0 range.

On the Federal Reserve side, the probability of interest rate cuts is quite high, with an expected 2 to 3 cuts, each by 25 basis points. The Hong Kong dollar will follow suit, and the Hong Kong stock market may benefit from liquidity easing.

The domestic stock market might perform as follows: a pattern of "three in, two out," wave-like upward movement, with the full-year gains possibly surpassing those of 2025. To truly challenge 5000 points, both fundamentals and capital conditions need to work together.

At the sector level, precious metals will continue to be strong. Under the theme of "safety," strategic small metals—such as tungsten, molybdenum, antimony, and uranium—may be more resilient compared to ordinary commodities. Copper and rare earths are also worth watching. Is a historic bull market in non-ferrous metals on the horizon? That’s indeed a question worth pondering.

AI, well, it’s a topic that can’t be avoided over the next five years. From a safety and technological perspective, the opportunities related to AI have not yet been fully digested.

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InfraVibes

· 01-06 02:10

Renminbi breaks 6? Stop dreaming. It will fluctuate between 6.5-7.0, and volatility is the norm. The rate cut + AI opportunities haven't been fully digested yet. There is indeed some room for imagination in this area, but it depends on the Federal Reserve's stance. I believe in the strength of precious metals. Strategic minor metals like tungsten and molybdenum are indeed interesting, but the question is whether retail investors can bottom fish—this needs a question mark. Is there a historic bull market in non-ferrous metals? First, see if the fundamentals can keep up before saying anything. Don't become a bag-holder again. The 5000-point level requires both fundamental and liquidity factors to work together. Just hearing that makes you realize how high the difficulty is. It's better to stick to regular dollar-cost averaging.

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ForkMaster

· 01-05 21:33

Breaking 6% probability is unlikely? Ha, I've heard this line too many times, and reality always proves it wrong. However, cutting interest rates is indeed worth waiting for. In the past two years, with high childcare expenses, we need to find ways to increase value during periods of liquidity easing. Strategic minor metals like non-ferrous metals are quite interesting. Compared to ordinary commodities, they are indeed more volatile, but it depends on the fundamentals. Don't follow the hype. AI still needs five years to fully digest? I think smart people have already started auditing those AI contracts for vulnerabilities.

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Blockblind

· 01-05 20:08

Cut interest rates 2-3 times? This wave of Hong Kong stocks is about to take off, Bitcoin is not just riding along The probability of the RMB breaking 6 is not high, so I need to keep holding my USDT Bull market in non-ferrous metals? Can strategic minor metals like tungsten and molybdenum really double? It feels like they've already been pumped once Are there still so many opportunities in AI that haven't been digested? I don't really believe it, given how competitive it's become If the stock market can outperform last year's performance, I would be surprised. The current situation of entering three and retreating two still depends on whether the funds are willing to take the risk

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ForkItAll

· 01-04 15:10

Interest rate cuts are the only hope for Hong Kong stocks; for A-shares, it still depends on the fundamentals—if not strong enough, it will just be another round of retail investors getting harvested.

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DaoDeveloper

· 01-04 15:09

ngl the macro setup here is interesting but feels like it's missing the composability angle—like, have you thought about how these monetary policy primitives actually cascade through defi protocols? the fed's 2-3 rate cuts could fundamentally reshape liquidation mechanics across lending pools, which is kind of crucial for btc's on-chain volatility patterns

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CoffeeOnChain

· 01-04 15:04

RMB 6.5 to 7.0? I think... the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising. Can Hong Kong stocks take off? Well, we still need to see how US bonds perform. Is it true or not?

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PumpingCroissant

· 01-04 14:59

Is a break of 6 unlikely? So conservative. Bidirectional volatility is normal, but it feels like this year has quite a few uncertainties... However, with the RMB gradually appreciating, should we bottom fish in the US dollar? --- Benefiting from 2-3 rate cuts, I understand this logic, but can it really rise? Ultimately, liquidity easing will return to fundamentals. --- Historically bullish metals? Can strategic minor metals like tungsten and molybdenum really be more volatile than copper and rare earths? Feeling a bit overwhelmed and tempted to go all-in. --- The AI opportunity isn't fully digested yet. It's not too late to enter now, right? Just worried that it might be another story-telling phase and we get caught in a trap. --- The challenge of "buy three, sell two" at 5000 points sounds like a wave-like cut-off... When will the fundamentals and liquidity side start to move together? --- Precious metals are strong and reliable. Under the "safety" theme, bottom fishing for gold probably won't be too亏, much safer than just holding coins. --- Will the Federal Reserve really cut 2-3 times? It feels like they were quite confident in the hawkish stance in the past two years... Betting on a 6.5 to 7.0 central range seems a bit risky.

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TommyTeacher

· 01-04 14:53

It's not very likely to break 6, so I still need to stock up more on USD... But is it really that easy to reach 5000 points?

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ForkYouPayMe

· 01-04 14:51

The chance of breaking 6 isn't high? I think it's better to hold more USD to feel secure. As for the RMB, it might still need to fluctuate for a while.

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ApeWithAPlan

· 01-04 14:43

RMB breaking 6? Dream on, or just stay honest and hover between 6.5-7.0 Can Hong Kong stocks rise with loose liquidity? Forget it, the key is whether the fundamentals improve AI is indeed still in its early stages, but entering now requires being able to withstand volatility Bull market in non-ferrous metals? Copper and rare earths are indeed worth watching, but don't overestimate them 5,000 points? Let's wait for the fundamentals to speak first

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