2026-01-04 15:21:38

Have your returns from 2023 to 2025 failed to beat BTC? Don't worry, it's not about luck, but about not catching the right rhythm in the crypto market.

I reviewed nearly 10 years of data and re-analyzed BTC's bull and bear cycles, discovering an interesting pattern. First, look at the duration of bear markets—the 2014 cycle lasted from November 2013 to January 2015, totaling 410 days; the 2018 cycle from December 2017 to December 2018, totaling 363 days; and the 2022 cycle from October 2021 to November 2022, totaling 377 days. It may seem scattered, but the average is roughly just over 360 days, basically about one year.

More importantly, the frequency of bull market peaks. The peaks in November 2013, December 2017, and October 2021 are roughly four years apart. Based on this cycle, around October 2025 should be the high point of this bull run. Counting forward 364 days from there points to October 2026.

The pattern of history is stubborn—if you take the time to analyze the data, the next opportunity window has actually been there all along.

BTC-0,02%

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0xInsomnia

· 01-06 14:40

The data looks great, but can this logic really be perfectly replicated? I have a hard time believing it.

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RebaseVictim

· 01-06 06:57

Hmm... October 2025? Sounds pretty scientific, but I always feel history doesn't follow such a straightforward path.

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blockBoy

· 01-06 06:22

Wow, this data logic is pretty solid. Is a four-year cycle really that strict?

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BlockchainTalker

· 01-04 15:51

actually the 4-year cycle thing is giving survivorship bias vibes ngl... like what about all the times the pattern *didn't* hold? just saying

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BearMarketBard

· 01-04 15:47

I swear I’ve looked at this data logic at least five times, and every time I feel like something's off. Just based on this four-year cycle argument, I have to be honest—history repeats itself, but it never copies exactly, brother.

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quiet_lurker

· 01-04 15:41

Hmm... sounds good, but someone always says that, and what’s the result?

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Rekt_Recovery

· 01-04 15:34

bruh the 4-year cycle thing hits different when you realize you've been liquidated three times waiting for it to play out lol... but nah actually this checks out, the pattern is kinda spooky once you see it

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LuckyBearDrawer

· 01-04 15:32

A cycle every four years—this logic sounds quite solid, but it also feels like armchair strategizing after the fact.

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