2026-01-04 17:21:49

The beginning of the year has been quite volatile for the market. On January 1st, there was a full-scale plunge, with over 160,000 traders being liquidated directly. But the turning point came quickly—after January 2nd, Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded rapidly, and Meme coins led the rally, gradually warming market sentiment from extreme fear.

Currently, the overall market maintains a cautious tone, but signs of recovery are emerging. The Fear & Greed Index rebounded from 20 (Extreme Fear) to 38 (Fear zone), indicating that investor sentiment is slowly adjusting. The total market capitalization of crypto assets has returned to the $3 trillion mark, with Bitcoin trading around $89,945 and Ethereum at approximately $3,124.

Looking at the data in more detail reveals interesting insights. The average holding price for Bitcoin is about $56,137, below the current short-term investor cost basis. Recently, there has been a significant net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges (over 38,500 coins on January 1st alone), which usually suggests that selling pressure may be easing. More importantly, open interest in futures contracts has decreased by over 40% since its peak in October last year, indicating a clear reduction in market leverage, which is a positive sign for stability.

An interesting comparison: Bitcoin has declined about 6% so far in 2025, marking the first annual decline after the halving, breaking the commonly held "four-year cycle" theory.

From a technical perspective, the short-term market is in consolidation. Key resistance levels are in the $89,500–$92,000 range, with support levels between $82,000 and $87,000. The rebound of Meme coins is widely seen as a risk appetite test signal, serving as a "thermometer" for market sentiment changes. However, whether this upward trend can continue depends on whether mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum can truly strengthen.

Looking at the long-term logic, ETF funds, corporate, and national holdings form a kind of "structural demand," which could provide underlying support for the market. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has also clarified the 2026 target direction, emphasizing decentralization and global accessibility. Ripple plans to unlock 1 billion XRP, and the burn rate of SHIB has surged by over ten thousand times, indicating ongoing ecosystem evolution.

On the policy front, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance the "Digital Asset Market Structure Act" (commonly known as the Clarity Act) next week. This development is highly watched by the market and could become a key driver in the next phase.

BTC-2,25%

ETH-3,61%

MEME-4,81%

XRP-7,19%

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ruggedSoBadLMAO

· 20h ago

160,000 people liquidated, I am truly lucky to still be alive --- Is meme coin leading the rally? Just another round of chopping the leeks --- The decline in leverage ratio indicates that smart investors are scared, this is the most genuine sign --- Talking about the four-year cycle again? Don’t be silly, 2025 has already started to prove it wrong --- Clarity bill next week? Just a reassurance before the floodgates open --- Bitcoin average price is 56k, now at 89k, all the buyers are just bagholders --- Exchange net outflows? Just the final sprint before fleeing --- What is Vitalik talking about decentralization again? After chopping the leeks, he changes direction --- Structural demand sounds impressive, but it’s actually institutions accumulating positions

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TokenTherapist

· 01-05 14:13

The moment 160,000 people get liquidated was truly terrifying. Now that there's a rebound, it still feels like we should be cautious. The temperature gauge for Meme coins is quite something—every jump is full of people's sentiments. Leverage has decreased by 40%, now that's real calmness. The four-year cycle has broken? It seems like this year we need to rewrite the script. ETF + national-level demand is indeed a solid foundation; there's long-term support. Once the clarity bill advances, there should be some movement next week. Bitcoin's price keeps testing this level; if it doesn't break 92K, it might consolidate for a while. Open interest in futures contracts has dropped significantly, indicating many have already given up. Vitalik has spoken out; the Ethereum ecosystem is still in flux, which is quite interesting. XRP unlocking one billion coins, and SHIB burning skyrocketing—these small moves add up and are worth watching.

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MetaverseHobo

· 01-04 17:51

160,000 traders liquidated, I'm just wondering, is this helping to wash out the market? --- Leverage ratio down by 40%, finally some rational people, otherwise this round would have been a disaster again --- Meme coins leading the rally? Here we go again, someone has to take the buy-in, right? --- The Clarity Act is coming next week, this is the real turning point, don’t just focus on the candlestick charts --- The average price of 56,137 is still pressing down, short-term investors are still bleeding --- ETF funds are coming in as underlying support, this time is different, institutions are working

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OnChainArchaeologist

· 01-04 17:47

On the day 160,000 people got liquidated, I knew it was a bottom signal. Now it seems I was right. The rise of meme coins indicates risk appetite has returned, but don’t be fooled. The decrease in leverage ratio is indeed a good thing, much better than the last time when things were crazy. In the 89,500-92,000 range, if it can't break through, it will still be volatile. The Clarity Act is coming; this is probably the real turning point of the year. However, the four-year cycle pattern has been broken. Whether it can recover this time depends on what happens next. Net outflows from exchanges exceeded 38,500, and retail investors are finally starting to calmly accumulate coins. I believe in this logical framework of structural demand, but in the short term, technical analysis still matters.

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CryptoFortuneTeller

· 01-04 17:46

On the day 160,000 people got liquidated, I was still sleeping, and I missed the chance to buy the dip. Another regret in life. --- The recent rebound of meme coins really is a market thermometer. Watching them take off shows that funds are still alive. --- Leverage ratio dropped by 40%. Feels like preparing for the next big market move? Or am I overthinking it? --- The average position price at 56,000 vs the current price at 90,000. These coin hoarders are laughing so happily haha. --- The four-year cycle has been broken. If a 6% drop can break it, then were the previous patterns I heard all just lies? --- The long-term logic of ETF structural demand sounds stable, but this short-term consolidation is really annoying. --- Next week’s push for the Clarity Act? If it passes, will there be another wave of FOMO? --- Will the unlocking of 1 billion XRP cause a dump, or can ecosystem development absorb this selling pressure? --- Rebounded from extreme fear at 20 to 38. Investors' mindset adjustment is a bit slow. --- What does the net outflow of 38,500 Bitcoin mean? Are big players moving to cold wallets or are they actually buying the dip?

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SelfSovereignSteve

· 01-04 17:37

On the day 160,000 people got liquidated, I didn't sleep. Now looking at the rebound, just consider it good luck. Regarding Meme coins leading the rally... I'll just watch without taking action. Leverage decreased before I feel at ease; the previous situation was really unsustainable. Is the clarity bill going to be pushed forward? This is the real game-changing rule rewrite. BTC's average price at 56k is still below the current short-term cost, indicating that big players are accumulating and eating up the chips. The four-year cycle is broken; 2025 might need to redefine the pattern. The demand for ETFs and at the national level is there; the underlying support remains stable. Let's wait for mainstream assets to truly strengthen. Shib burn rate skyrocketed by ten thousand times? This is to kill inflation expectations.

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CryptoPhoenix

· 01-04 17:31

When 160,000 people got liquidated, I was really panicked, but look, this is the meaning of cycling through the market; it rebounded in just two days... Is this wave giving us a chance to build positions? Leverage ratio decreased by 40%, it sounds like the market is finally starting to be rational. The law of conservation of energy—losses will eventually be recovered. The bottom range is right in front of us; once the policy is implemented, this will be the moment of value return. Believing in it means winning, doesn’t it? The tears of 160,000 people are our tomorrow’s cost line... Let’s buy the dip aggressively, everyone. Complaining in a bear market is pointless; opportunities are always reserved for the patient. Another mindset reset, I’ve gotten used to it, haha... Bitcoin’s current stance indeed seems to be gearing up for the next round. ETF funds are supporting the floor; what are we afraid of? Stand firm.

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