#比特币网络升级 Regarding the ongoing discussion about the threat of quantum computing, I have compiled several key signals worth paying attention to:

**Time dimension is critical** — Jameson Lopp’s statement is clear: no worries in the short term, protocol modifications will take 5-10 years. This means the real threat is still far off, but the window for preparation is closing. The claim that 1.7 million BTC are at risk is indeed circulating, but it’s important to analyze the underlying interests—Nic Carter’s fund happens to have invested in anti-quantum tools companies. Such signals are common on-chain and require vigilance against the intertwining of public opinion and commercial motives.

**Consensus cost is extremely high** — Michael Saylor’s perspective hits the point: the difficulty of achieving global consensus far exceeds technical challenges. Any protocol change involves systemic risk; if it goes wrong, it could be catastrophic. This explains why Bitcoin Core remains extremely conservative in version v30—this is precisely a reflection of security considerations.

**Practical view**: In the short term, there’s no need to overly focus on the upgrade pressures brought by quantum risks. Instead, observe the flow of funds and institutional stances in these debates. If there truly were large-scale anti-quantum upgrade proposals, that would be the key moment to track whale movements and on-chain migrations. Currently, this stage is more about public opinion battles rather than technical necessity.