1. 0.1 Bitcoin, can it really buy a house?

"Holding 0.1 Bitcoin until 2048 will achieve financial freedom"—this phrase has been circulating in the crypto world for years. But after many years in the industry, I have to be honest: it sounds great, but in reality, it's a game of probabilities.

The scarcity logic of Bitcoin is indeed solid. The total supply is firmly capped at 21 million coins, but the problem is: many early private keys are lost, and "zombie coins" caused by sending to wrong addresses are increasing. The actual circulating supply of Bitcoin is far less than the theoretical total. This is similar to collectibles—the rarer, the more valuable.

But there's a logical trap here—scarcity does not necessarily mean appreciation. With a market cap already exceeding one trillion USD, wanting to double again? It would require massive capital inflows. The short-term get-rich-quick dream should be awakened.

However, looking over twenty or thirty years, things get complicated. The halving cycle occurs every four years, and after the next halving, the annual inflation rate will drop to 0.85%, approaching gold standards. Swedish pension funds and US spot ETFs are accumulating coins. If more countries include it in their foreign exchange reserves in the future, demand could truly explode.

The key is not to ignore policy risks. One day, a major country might suddenly tighten regulations, and the price could instantly become a roller coaster.

My honest opinion is: holding 0.1 Bitcoin has potential for appreciation, but don’t bet your entire wealth on it.

2. The biggest pitfall for beginners: emotions are the real killer

Many people think trading cryptocurrencies depends on technical analysis—that's wrong—it's actually mindset that is the biggest enemy.

"Sell when it drops, buy when it rises" is the most common deadly mistake. Bitcoin's volatility is terrifying; after reaching $69,000 in 2021, it was halved, and this is still fresh in memory. A common mistake beginners make is this: being driven by emotions, operating with a gambler’s mentality.

When the coin price fluctuates, it tests human nature the most. Selling in a 20% dip to cut losses, only to regret when it rebounds; chasing after a 50% rise, buying at the top. This frequent trading not only wastes fees but also destroys your mindset.

So, what beginners should do is: set a strategy first before entering, don’t watch the market when it dips, and don’t dream when it rises. The scarcity logic of Bitcoin is long-term, not for short-term trading.