2026-01-05 17:23:09

Recently, many friends have asked me what I think about meme coins like PEPE, so I might as well go through the entire logic.

Compared to the market rally in 2021, the biggest change now is one word—change. After ETF compliance entered the market, the entire ecosystem has completely transformed. The old methods of flood-the-market, hundreds of coins flying together, and doubling your holdings just by holding coins are long gone. The myth that new coins can guarantee profits upon listing is now a thing of the past.

Have you noticed? Recently, Bitcoin broke through 126,000 to hit a new high, but altcoins can't keep up; new coins open weakly right from the start. This is no coincidence; the underlying logic is right there.

The coins that can achieve multi-fold growth in this bull market must meet several conditions: first, they need to have long-term development accumulation; second, their operations must comply with regulations; third, they need institutional funding backing; and most importantly, they must have irreplaceable value and be able to create a positive cycle. Bitcoin and Ethereum are typical representatives—large consensus base, solid foundation, mature ecosystem. Finding the next such project is the true long-term profit path.

As for the short-term gains of most altcoins? To put it simply, it’s about market makers precisely timing their moves. They quietly build positions at low levels, wait for the market to have fewer sell orders, then push prices up steadily, and when retail investors follow the trend, they start to sell. The profits are then quickly converted into Bitcoin or Ethereum. This is the market’s unwritten rule.

Warren Buffett’s words are timeless: the first rule of investing is to protect your principal, and the second rule is to remember the first. Behavioral economics has a term called "loss aversion"—humans fear losing money much more than they look forward to making money. Many people, because of this psychology, rush to cash out after small gains, but when they suffer losses, they’re reluctant to cut losses, ultimately holding on until they get margin called.

The iron law of financial markets is that risk and reward are proportional. Entering the market with high risk but not receiving commensurate returns, or without a clear trading strategy, is not worth it. Instead, it’s better to observe quietly. That’s the attitude of a mature investor.

PEPE10,47%

BTC3,2%

ETH5,13%

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Gm_Gn_Merchant

· 01-07 18:04

That's right, chasing risky coins now is indeed gambling with principal. I've been lessons before; at that time, I went all-in on PEPE and was directly cut in half, a painful lesson. Now, I'll hold tightly and wait for better opportunities with BTC and ETH.

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PumpDoctrine

· 01-07 02:52

Honestly, in 2021, I also made a lot of money during that wave, but the gameplay has indeed changed now. The market maker's method of cutting leeks is too obvious. After ETFs came in, institutional funds became the real big players. Retail investors chasing the limit-up are doomed to be the bagholders. PEPE? Wake up, it's just a game of hot potato. Unless you can precisely time the top, blood losses are inevitable. Bitcoin soars to the sky, while altcoins stay stagnant. This is the clearest signal—big money only recognizes the top coins. Instead of researching new coins every day, it's better to honestly hold onto BTC and ETH. Isn't sleeping and earning money more enjoyable? Market makers buy low and sell high, then switch to Bitcoin. They profit from our retail investors' fees and losses. If you have no strategy, don't force it. That's the truth—many people go from small gains to big losses because of greed.

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SerumSquirter

· 01-06 17:41

That's right, chasing new coins now is just being harvested by market makers as a leek. I've seen too many people dreaming of getting rich overnight only to get liquidated directly. Really, the strategies from 2021 are indeed dead. After ETFs came in, institutional influence became too strong. The biggest pitfall in the crypto world is insufficient psychological preparation—making a profit and running, losing and holding on—playing like this will eventually lead to public shaming. It's better to invest in BTC and ETH; anything else is either gambling or something else. I only hold two coins now; looking at more is just a waste of brainpower.

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ImpermanentTherapist

· 01-05 17:53

That's right, this round has really been seen clearly. After the ETF entry, the market rules have completely changed. Pure entertainment coins like PEPE can be played with, but don't go all in. Market makers take a cut and then it's over. The crypto world always follows this pattern, the retail investors are the bagholders. People who make small profits and then run are actually the smartest. I've seen too many greedy ones get wiped out. In the long run, BTC and ETH are still reliable; everything else is just gambling. Loss aversion really hit home, it's a human weakness. If you don't have a strategy, don't force it. Watching and waiting is the real way to win.

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MemeCurator

· 01-05 17:51

Exactly right. The days of foolproof passive income in 2021 are definitely gone. If you're still chasing new coins now, you're really being harvested like a leek by market makers.

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OnchainUndercover

· 01-05 17:48

It's quite revealing. The days of easy money in 2021 are truly gone; now playing meme coins is just giving money to market makers. Retail investors are still chasing new coins, while institutions have long since gone all in on BTC and ETH. That's how the gap widens. The loss aversion part hits home—rushing to take profits at five dollars, but holding on stubbornly through a five hundred dollar loss. If this mindset doesn't change, it's no wonder you're getting cut. The small rise of PEPE looks good, but in reality, it's just the market manipulators dancing while retail investors follow and buy in. If there's no real moat, don't touch it. In the end, it all comes back to BTC—it's the only certainty. It's better to wait and see rather than rush in; instead of dreaming of tenfold coins, it's wiser to protect your principal. There's nothing wrong with that.

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SchrodingerWallet

· 01-05 17:48

There's nothing wrong with that, but I still want to take a gamble on PEPE, just in case.

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OnChainSleuth

· 01-05 17:42

That's right, if you're still bottom-fishing in altcoins now, you're basically being harvested by market makers as a leek. After the ETF entered the market, the landscape indeed changed. Institutional funds now mainly favor Bitcoin and Ethereum, while others are just playing a fool's game. Everyone making money from this wave of market has switched to BTC, retail investors are still waiting for PEPE to double, it's hilarious. Protecting principal is truly a thousand times more important than getting rich overnight, but who listens? Everyone wants to go all-in. Market makers' tricks have been exposed long ago: building positions at low prices → pumping during window periods → retail follow and sell off. People still fall for this old trick. Instead of gambling on new coins, it's better to dollar-cost average into mainstream coins. It may not be stable, but it’s more reassuring. The days of hundreds of coins flying high in 2021 are gone; now it’s just a matter of who can hold on.

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SchroedingerAirdrop

· 01-05 17:38

Honestly, if you're still chasing altcoins now, you're just getting yourself wrecked. I'm very familiar with market makers; it's all about playing psychological games. BTC is king, everything else is just a supporting role. The era of "a hundred coins flying together" is long gone; face reality, everyone. Retail investors' fate is to take the last hit—that's an iron law. Protecting your principal is more important than anything else; losing money can really drive you crazy. Seeing a bunch of new coins drop as soon as they open tells you that institutions have already made their profit. All the real money is in Bitcoin and Ethereum; everything else is just an illusion. Stop-loss is a hundred times wiser than holding on to losses, but most people can't learn that. The market rules have changed now; all the old strategies are invalid.

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CryptoNomics

· 01-05 17:33

actually, if you run a basic correlation analysis on altcoin movements vs btc dominance post-etf, the r-squared drops to like 0.34... your whole "shitcoin season is dead" thesis conveniently ignores the tokenomics fundamentals that *actually* drive vol. just saying.

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