These past two days, watching BTC fluctuate repeatedly between 96,000 and 98,500, it looks like the weekly chart is about to break 100,000 but then pulls back again. The comment section is completely heated—some are shouting "Beware of trap setups," while others insist "This is just accumulation." I've been rooted in the crypto market for nearly ten years, and I need to clarify one point: this sideways consolidation is not a bad thing; in fact, it seems like institutions are deliberately paving the way for retail investors to get on board.

Technical analysis doesn't lie. Over the past three weeks, BTC has stabilized above 95,000. This pattern of high-level consolidation replacing a pullback has occurred three times in history. Each time, it was followed by a major rally. Looking back at the sideways movement around 50,000 USD in May 2021, and the oscillation phase before the approval of the spot ETF at 80,000 USD in 2024, the routine is actually the same: major funds need to complete chip rotation at high levels, flushing out retail investors with unstable mindsets, while guiding new capital to enter and take over, building strength for the next upward move.

The most critical defense line at this stage is 92,000 USD. As long as the price doesn't break below this level with increased volume this week, any pullback is just an opportunity to enter gradually. I want to emphasize here: "a pullback is an opportunity" does not mean going all-in with your entire position, but rather a rhythm of phased deployment. Institutions won't give retail investors much time to scoop up chips at below 95,000 USD; this window is actually quite tight.

Looking further at the capital side, this is the real breakout point. Monitoring the flow of funds into the spot ETF after the US stock market opens is essential—it's a direct signal of market heat. More importantly, the first week of the new year is likely to see a surge of pension fund entries. The Trump administration recently adjusted related investment policies, which will release a significant amount of capital flow. Although this money might not seem "massive," its psychological impact and demonstration effect are huge—institutional investors will follow suit once they see this signal and increase their allocations.

So, the current situation is: solid support at the bottom, warm capital flows, and high-level consolidation providing enough time to build a foundation. As long as we hold the 92,000 line, and wait for a catalyst from the capital side, 100,000 USD is not a dream. Of course, this isn't just me talking nonsense; it's based on historical patterns and current data. The final reminder is: manage your risks well and don't get caught up in short-term noise.