2026-01-05 22:23:04

The derivatives market has become the most critical amplifier of Bitcoin price volatility. Recent futures and options data reveal a signal: a major move in the short-term trend may be imminent, and the timing for choosing a direction is near.

Let's first look at the futures side. Open interest remains high at around $38 billion, but the funding rate is only +0.008%—indicating that the leverage bubble isn't that exaggerated, and the market hasn't reached a frenzy stage. Where is the problem? The liquidation heatmap exposes the real danger zones: the $94,000-$95,000 level is densely populated with short stop-loss orders. Once the price breaks through, it could trigger a chain reaction, forcing shorts to close positions, pushing the market rapidly upward. Conversely, if the price pulls back, the $88,000-$90,000 range is also filled with long stop-loss orders, and the decline could be amplified instantly.

The story in the options market is more complex. For options contracts expiring at the end of January, the maximum pain point is set at $91,000—that's the liquidation price that market makers dream of. Currently, the most concentrated strike prices are between $90,000 and $92,000, meaning that before expiration, market makers will hedge to keep the price pinned near $91,000. But what really warrants attention is the abnormal activity in near-term call options. After the price surged on January 5, everyone rushed to buy calls. If the gamma effect kicks in, market makers will have to continuously buy spot to hedge risks—further fueling short-term upward movement.

A risk signal is emerging: the most concerning scenario is when futures open interest increases but the price remains sideways. The market has been doing just that recently. If this is combined with implied volatility suddenly spiking from low levels (currently around 45%, well below December's 60%), the probability of volatility explosion becomes too significant to ignore.

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PanicSeller

· 01-08 20:55

I'm just afraid of this strange sideways movement, it feels like market makers are holding back a big move Holding tightly at 91k and not letting go, a classic manipulation tactic With such low volatility, they are probably accumulating energy. Once it erupts, be mentally prepared to cut losses The 88-95 range is do or die; there's no middle ground Once the gamma effect kicks in? That’s when the bull slaughterhouse opens Sideways accumulation combined with low volatility—I've seen this combo before, and it definitely won't be peaceful next The stop-loss orders are so densely packed, one poke and they explode. Who dares to take this position?

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BrokenRugs

· 01-08 08:03

Market makers are holding tightly at the $91,000 level. There's a high chance of a short-term breakout or collapse, and gamblers are panicking.

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ChainDetective

· 01-05 22:52

It's that number 91,000 again. The market maker must have already pegged the price.

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DefiPlaybook

· 01-05 22:50

At the 91,000 level, market makers are watching closely. Basically, they want to harvest both sides of the traders—classic tactic. Futures and options are linked, and this is the real amplifier. The leverage bubble may look calm on the surface, but undercurrents are surging. Volatility has dropped from 60% to 45%, which is too strange. Isn't this the calm before the storm? Once the two areas in the liquidation heatmap are triggered, a chain reaction can cause you to be liquidated in minutes. Traders in futures need to be mentally prepared. Once the positive gamma effect is activated, market makers will have to buy spot assets aggressively to hedge. Just thinking about it is exciting. The question now is whether we are waiting for a rally or a dip. Whoever can accurately read this wave's rhythm will make big profits.

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TerraNeverForget

· 01-05 22:49

94k to 95k is really holding on tight, with short stop-loss orders so dense it feels like a trigger away Market makers are holding the price firmly at 91k? Haha, I just want to see how long they can keep it down The gamma effect is really kicking in now, and those bottom-fishing might be about to take off Position increases and sideways price movement—I've seen this combo too many times, usually not a good sign Volatility is only 45%, far below last month's 60%, feeling like the calm before the storm Honestly, the derivatives play is too destructive, retail investors can't defend against it at all There are still long stop-loss orders buried between 88k-90k, and if it drops further, it might break out in minutes

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LightningAllInHero

· 01-05 22:49

Once 94k is broken, we'll have to open the champagne, and the short stop-loss orders will all be wiped out in one go...

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TestnetNomad

· 01-05 22:38

The 94k-95k range really can't hold anymore. Once it breaks through, triggering stop-loss orders in a short squeeze, it will set off a chain reaction and be game over.

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ConfusedWhale

· 01-05 22:32

94k-95k is really a powder keg, with short stop-loss orders densely packed to an almost absurd level. Once broken through, it’s likely to trigger a chain reaction. Market makers consider 91k as a dream price? Laughs. These guys always try to push the market down to a certain point, waiting to collect options premiums on both sides. Volatility is only 45%, which seems unusually low. If it suddenly spikes, it will definitely be a signal. Sideways movement + increasing positions? Typical accumulation of strength. It feels like a short-term move is imminent. The data in the liquidation heatmap is really detailed; a lot of stop-losses are also buried between 88k-90k... This wave truly has traps both above and below.

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