#数字资产动态追踪 Will US bonds really collapse? This question has troubled many holders.

Honestly — you probably won't see that day in your lifetime.

**Why?**

First, default requires extreme conditions. The only trigger for a US bond crisis is the US Congress refusing to raise the debt ceiling. In the US political system of checks and balances, the probability of this happening is lower than a meteor hitting Earth. Historically, multiple debt crises have ultimately been resolved through forced extensions.

Second, the backing is too strong. US bonds are supported by the world's largest economy, military power, and technological monopoly. Global capital continues to pour in. The auction data from early 2026 already shows the point — oversubscription reaching 2.5 times, with institutional buyers rushing in, as can be imagined.

Third, the key weapon is the power to print money. As the global reserve currency, the US dollar has a trump card: printing money to buy debt when necessary (quantitative easing). Other countries dream of having this privilege, but only the US has it.

**What are smart money doing?**

While retail investors are still debating "Will US bonds collapse or not," institutions are doing one simple thing — buying long-term bonds with high yields at low prices. Once the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle, these bonds will generate huge unrealized gains. By 2026, this logic might be the most stable arbitrage window in the world.

**But that doesn't mean you can sleep soundly.**

The real risks are hidden in unseen places: the long-term erosion of US dollar credit, repeated shocks from inflation, and the slow de-dollarization worldwide. These are the invisible gray rhinos that can cause harm.

Compared to betting on a US bond default, it's better to think in reverse — how to profit from its "won't collapse" property. Ordinary investors can allocate bond ETFs to lock in returns; institutions should be cautious of US bonds' role as the global asset pricing benchmark, as any fluctuation will trigger chain reactions in crypto markets, stocks, and commodities.

The fundamental rule of the financial world remains unchanged: "Too big to fail" is always the strongest moat.