#加密市场开年反弹 Crypto veterans all know about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle. In the early market, it was mainly driven by halving events: BTC supply decreased, sentiment soared, and funds poured in. The entire rhythm seemed scripted as if it was hardcoded. But now, with the market size much larger, the four-year cycle naturally shows some deviations. However, this cycle is still ongoing.

BTC Technical Analysis
Weekly chart has not yet shown a clear sign of bottoming out
Around 90,000 is a strong support
Dense trading zones below can hold
Although not fully stabilized yet, the downside is actually limited
Simply put, the 4-year cycle is still there, just with some deviations. In the future, it will likely resemble macro-driven rotations of easing and tightening. Bulls and bears are always reactive, so I personally still believe in the macro cycle rotation logic—either a transition between bull and bear markets, or the early stage of a bear market. Maybe we are already in it, but all of this will be verified over time.
If this bull market ends just like that, many altcoin traders will definitely suffer losses. So, will there be a rebound in altcoins? I personally think so. For example, if BTC drops to 90,000 and then rebounds to 100,000, that rebound could trigger a short-term altcoin rally, possibly lasting only about two weeks. Recently, we’ve also seen some altcoins stop falling in sync, like $LTC . Some project teams are starting to come out and do things instead of lying flat and pretending to be dead, like $UNI . Some funds are also re-entering old-school altcoins, like $FIL . Currently, there's no need to cut losses on the trash coins that got caught in scams; even if they fall further, they will rebound eventually. As long as Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds, altcoins will follow. Even if you cut losses later, you’ll lose less.
And when the bear market truly arrives, it’s not so scary. Many people, including myself, didn’t do well in this bull run. But these experiences have accumulated valuable lessons for the next bull cycle. So even if a bear market comes, we can gradually position ourselves for the next run. I will also update an article on coins worth accumulating during the bear market. Stay tuned.
Whether it’s a bull or a bear, don’t leave this space. We will surely come out stronger. Let’s encourage each other.