#美联储降息 The essence of the Federal Reserve's RMP operations is a variant of QE, which is very important. What does the re-release of liquidity mean? The pressure of fiat currency devaluation increases, and the asset side will inevitably come under pressure.

Looking at Hayes' logical chain: RMP=QE→Liquidity easing→BTC benefits→$124,000. Short-term fluctuations between $80,000 and $100,000 are a reasonable transition, but the question is when the market will form this perception.

But there is a detail worth noting—Hayes transferred 508.647 ETH to Galaxy Digital yesterday, worth $1.5 million. While continuing to be bullish, he sold during the rebound. This behavior is more revealing than words. It could be an expectation that a short-term high is imminent, or a change in risk assessment at the current price level.

On-chain fund flows should track the movements of large holders, especially institutional inflows and outflows. If we see whales continuously flowing into exchanges later, we need to be more cautious. The high sentiment expected in March next year can be noted, but the key is the timing of the profit window opening. Don’t just focus on the final number.