I recently came across some interesting data. The statutory tariff weighted average rate announced by the Trump administration peaked at 27.5% in September, which sounds quite alarming. But in reality, the actual weighted average tariff paid by US importers is only 14%—you read that right, nearly half.

Why is that? Essentially, exemption clauses are at work. The government frequently grants green lights to companies, especially those that promise to build factories in the US, to ease supply chain pressures. Take semiconductors as an example: the statutory tariff rate is set at 24%, but through exemption lists, the actual implementation is only about 9%.

Additionally, the USMCA framework allows goods within the US-Mexico-Canada region to bypass tariffs if they meet certain value-added thresholds, further weakening the actual trade barrier.

From a macro perspective, in 2024, imports only account for about 14% of US GDP. Applying the actual tariff rate of 14%, the overall economic impact translates to roughly a 2% marginal cost. This explains why consumer confidence remains subdued, yet employment and economic growth data are still relatively stable—the costs haven't been heavy enough to shake the fundamentals.