2026-01-06 04:23:04

The US dollar plummeted from 98.86 last night to 98.05, completely giving back its previous gains. The impact of geopolitical factors on dollar confidence exceeded expectations, with capital fleeing more than flowing in. What does this turning point mean? The probability of the dollar continuing to surge has significantly decreased, and various assets are now experiencing a general relief rally.

The situation with oil is a bit complicated. The oversupply situation is unlikely to be resolved in the short term; true supply-demand balance is not expected until after Q3 2026. From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil must break above $70-75 to reverse its downward trend. $68.76 is a critical threshold—without stabilizing above it, optimism is premature. The deeper logic behind this is more profound: since 2020, industry restructuring, combined with the wave of renewable energy and the global de-dollarization trend, has led to a shrinkage in industrial demand for oil (being eroded by renewables), and its financial attributes are also declining (being squeezed by other commodities). This fundamental shift in pricing logic is transformative.

In contrast, copper presents a completely different picture. Electricity replacing oil as the new industrial lifeblood means copper, as an indispensable material across the entire chain from power generation, transmission, distribution, to consumption, will inevitably become financialized. Supply-side pressures are also building—global large-scale copper mine development cycles have lengthened by 40%, now taking 18 years to bring new projects online, with many projects waiting over 10 years for capacity. This supply gap will continue to widen. Currently, copper prices are approaching a strong resistance level of $6-6.05, with $5.5-5.6 serving as support. It’s important to note that the bullish crowd is somewhat crowded, and short-term volatility is highly correlated with gold.

Gold has stabilized above the key level of 4440, which is relatively solid. Silver, on the other hand, needs caution; it failed to hold above the $77 resistance twice. This level must have stop-loss orders set, as the risk adjustment is significant. Natural gas is also worth watching. In the long term, copper is one of the most certain commodities, but do not apply long-term logic to short-term pricing.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

13 Likes

Reward
13
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

NFTPessimist

· 18h ago

Dollar plummeting? Haha, here we go again. Is it really different this time? I bet five bucks it'll rebound next week... Oil really is like this. The 2018 production cycle is hilarious. Maybe I should just keep holding copper. Silver's $77 threshold, I'm already tired of hearing about it. Every time, it comes around again. Copper is good, copper is good, but who dares to touch it in the short term? Bulls are packed together. Dollar credit being challenged? Nice way to put it. In the end, it just rebounds again. Waiting until 2026? Forget it, I won't live that long. Gold is stable, but it's just boring. We've been talking about de-dollarization for three years, and it feels like nothing has changed. I've heard too many times that supply gaps are widening, but the market just does the opposite. Don't use long-term logic to price short-term, that's why I keep losing money.

View OriginalReply0

VitaliksTwin

· 01-06 04:49

The dollar's plunge is just a signal that funds are shifting positions. Oil remains the same, we have to wait until Q3 2026 to catch a break, it's really tough. Copper, on the other hand, is interesting; in the new energy era, it’s indispensable. The supply gap is pushed further back, and this logic is solid. Silver's two attempts to break 77 didn't hold, so instead of betting on silver, it's better to wait for copper to truly break through. Short-term fluctuations are too closely linked to gold.

View OriginalReply0

BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 01-06 04:46

The dollar's plunge is indeed interesting, but don't be fooled by this breathing room. Geopolitical situations can change at any moment, so it's wise to remain cautious about staying bearish. Oil has really declined; it might not recover until 2026. It's probably best not to touch it—if 68.76 doesn't hold, it's a trap. I'm bullish on copper. In the era of electric vehicles, the gap is right there. The only concern is that too many bulls might cause a stampede. Silver is indeed risky. I've set my stop-loss already. It failed to hold at 77 twice, so I need to be extra careful this time. Long-term copper is solid, but the short-term volatility is too high to play around with. Gold is stable, which makes me feel more at ease.

View OriginalReply0

UncommonNPC

· 01-06 04:43

The recent plunge of the US dollar feels like geopolitical factors are finally kicking in, and funds are indeed fleeing. However, I don't think the trend is fully confirmed yet; a rebound could happen at any time. The situation with oil is indeed awkward. Overcapacity has been a problem for so long, it's really tough. Will it only balance out by 2026? I doubt it; the wave of new energy is irreversible. I'm more optimistic about copper. The logic of replacing oil with electricity makes sense. The key issue is that the supply gap is indeed widening, and the 18-year production cycle is a bit outrageous. I think it's a bit uncertain whether gold can hold steady at 4440, and silver even more so. The 77 resistance level is too strong. If it breaks down, it could be painful. --- Is the US dollar really going to turn back? It feels like it has only fallen a little. --- In the long term, copper is fine, but I've stepped into the trap of using long-term logic for short-term pricing before—lesson learned the hard way. --- The reasoning behind the shift in oil pricing logic makes sense, but can new energy really eat into industrial demand so quickly? I'm a bit skeptical. --- Is silver about to break down? I need to tighten my stop-loss a bit more.

View OriginalReply0