$32,500 in revenue, $400,000 realized in 24 hours—this bizarre predictive trade has caused a sensation in the crypto market.

Last December, a newly opened Polymarket account precisely targeted the political upheaval in Venezuela. The account had already held related contracts at a very low price ($0.07) hours before Trump officially announced policy actions. When the news broke, the account’s funds had multiplied more than 12 times. Even more outrageous, there was a user called "AlphaRaccoon" who predicted an unpopular outcome before it was announced on Google trending searches, making over a million dollars in profit in a single day.

Coincidence? Or information asymmetry? Market data provided the answer—these abnormal price fluctuations happened just before the public information was released.

Prediction markets have become popular. In September alone last year, the combined trading volume of the two major platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, reached $1.44 billion, far exceeding previous years. But behind this growth, doubts about insider trading are growing.

On October 10, the day the Nobel Peace Prize was announced, something strange happened on Polymarket. Maria Corina Machado’s odds of winning suddenly soared from 3-5% to 70% within 11 hours before the result was announced. This was not a minor fluctuation; it was the market speaking—someone clearly knew something.

Prediction markets were originally tools for democratic decision-making and information aggregation, but now they have become breeding grounds for insider information. When the stakes are high enough and timing precise enough, these markets turn into another kind of casino. Legislators can no longer sit still.