The trading experience over the past month has given me new insights into market rhythm.

In the early days, I profited quite a bit by shorting less popular small-cap coins, with single trades doubling tenfold. This logic was indeed effective under certain market conditions. But yesterday, when I saw the surge of SUI, although I sensed a signal of opportunity, I was more accustomed to expecting higher returns from shorting altcoins, so I ultimately chose to use the withdrawal capital from a certain exchange to go long on SUI. The result was quite good, with a 12% increase.

The problem appeared in the following two days. I reviewed the top gainers, trying to replicate the previous pattern of shorting coins that suddenly skyrocketed, but I found that those small coins which used to surge easily are now hard to find. In the end, I reluctantly chose a unfamiliar coin to short, only to find out that it was highly correlated with mainstream coins. When I was forced to cut losses, I was already nearly 30% in the red. This was the first time in my trading career that I experienced such a large-scale stop loss.

This signal is very clear: the market environment has changed. When mainstream coins and meme concept coins both strengthen, those small coins with weak independence have lost their ability to absorb retail investors' chips. Shorting them is no longer a stable strategy.

The question now is: can the mainstream coins that have already risen significantly continue to go long? Take SUI as an example, its gains are already quite substantial, and adding more positions to withstand a correction is too risky. So I shifted my focus to SOL. Honestly, its K-line doesn’t look very ideal, and the pattern is quite unattractive. But my judgment is that K-line is always lagging, and market expectations often precede price patterns. This trade marks a new beginning, and it may also be the end of the previous phase.