2026-01-06 06:27:45

2025 is about to pass. As an investor with years of experience in the global macro investment field, I have spent a lot of time reviewing this year's market trends. To be honest, my perspective is quite different from most people.

The general consensus is that US stocks, especially AI concept stocks, shined brightly in 2025, making it the strongest investment story of the year. But from my point of view? In fact, the biggest gains and most noteworthy stories come from two other dimensions:

First, the value changes of various major currencies. Especially the performance of the US dollar relative to other fiat currencies and precious metals—USD has fallen 0.3% against the Japanese Yen, 4% against the Chinese Renminbi, and a significant 12% against the Euro. What does this reflect? It indicates a deep adjustment in the global capital flow pattern.

Second, the performance of US stocks has been clearly surpassed by non-US stocks and gold. Gold has actually become the best-performing major asset class in 2025. Behind this phenomenon, three forces are driving it: differences in fiscal and monetary stimulus, the varying speeds of productivity growth across regions, and institutional investors massively reallocating assets from the US market outward.

I have decided to take a step back and observe how currencies, debt, markets, and the economy have interacted over the year. At the same time, I also want to mention four other key forces—politics, geopolitics, natural events, and technological innovation—these factors, in the grand cycle of change, have played a shaping role in the global macro landscape.

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DuskSurfer

· 01-08 11:07

The recent depreciation of the US dollar, many are still chasing AI, haha Gold is the real protagonist, I agree with this view Euro against the dollar surged so strongly? It feels like capital is moving around The US stock market might be a bit overvalued this time, institutions are fleeing What do you think about this round of commodities? It feels like just the beginning The RMB has appreciated by 4%, this signal is very interesting A major rebound in non-US stock markets, quite intriguing, paying attention Macro cycle rotation, the era of the US stock's solo dance is over The dollar decline theory is back, this time it seems to have some substance Gold hit a new high but still feels like it can't go up further Capital outflow from the US market, is it true or just hype? It seems time to reallocate assets, going all-in on US stocks might be a mistake Geopolitical turmoil, is the dollar hegemony about to loosen?

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GhostChainLoyalist

· 01-06 12:31

A 4% depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB, with gold moving in the opposite direction—this rhythm doesn't feel right... Are large institutional transfers really just arbitrage?

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VibesOverCharts

· 01-06 06:56

The dollar depreciation has really been underestimated by the market, with the euro rising 12%. The capital flows behind this are the real story. This year’s gold surge was truly worth it. Institutions are quietly withdrawing from US stocks. Are you still chasing AI concepts? It’s a bit late. I disagree. The US stock market remains king. This analysis overlooks the long-term driving force of technological innovation. The currency war has begun. While the decline of dollar hegemony might still be early, a reshuffle is definitely underway. That’s a good eye. Gold and non-US assets are rising simultaneously, indicating that big money is really shifting. We need to delve deeper into geopolitical issues. It seems to be the true driver behind this wave of market movements. AI stocks have been hyped up too much. It’s time to calmly look at the fundamentals. The macro cycle is the real key. The quiet withdrawal of institutions from US stocks is real. Data doesn’t lie. Euro up 12%? That’s so exaggerated. Is there a data source? It’s a bit too far-fetched. The capital shift to non-US markets looks promising. The long-term pattern is about to change.

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YieldWhisperer

· 01-06 06:55

Why is the US dollar falling so badly? Gold is the real winner, should have seen this coming long ago. Institutions are dumping US stocks to transfer assets, while retail investors are still chasing the AI dream, hilarious. Many missed the 12% rise of the euro, right? Gold, exchange rates, capital flows... these are the real big players, not just daily hype on concepts. Global macro reshuffling, the era of US stock dominance is truly over. The 4% appreciation of the RMB has a story behind it, need to look carefully. Non-US assets are taking off, we need to shift our focus accordingly. Debt, currency, politics... these factors are intertwined, no wonder the market is so strange. Gold has become the best of the year, indicating everyone is avoiding risk. This wave of US dollar depreciation, those in the know have already positioned for hedging, right?

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LayerHopper

· 01-06 06:55

The devaluation of the US dollar has indeed been underestimated; gold is the real protagonist. --- Wait, are the US stocks not as strong as rumors suggest? Then I need to reassess my holdings. --- I don't quite get the 12% drop in the euro; is it because Europe's economic data is weak again? --- What signals does the trend of institutions moving assets out of the US send? Is it really something to be worried about? --- I was still debating whether to jump on the gold bandwagon during its rise this year; now it seems I lost a lot. --- The perspective of productivity differences across regions is fresh; it feels like it touches on something deeper. --- In simple terms, it's still capital searching for the next growth point; the US is no longer as attractive. --- The currency war is played so deeply; is it really that hard to make money simply? --- So, ultimately, it's just about not only focusing on the US stock market, right?

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SerNgmi

· 01-06 06:40

The devaluation of the US dollar hasn't been fully reflected in the market yet. Gold is the real winner, wake up everyone. --- Euro up 12%? The capital transfer story behind this is huge, the gains from AI concept stocks are simply not enough to compare. --- Exactly, the major withdrawal of institutions from US stocks to non-US markets is the most core narrative for 2025. It would be ridiculous if no one is discussing it. --- Gold's takeoff is a certainty. Friends still chasing AI, you better see this clearly. --- Did you notice that the RMB has risen 4%? Behind it is a reshuffling of the entire global capital landscape. --- That's right, on the surface AI is booming, but in reality, funds are fleeing US stocks. Smart money has already started moving. --- This is the true macro perspective. Don't be fooled by the superficial AI hype; it's worth deep reflection.

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BearMarketBarber

· 01-06 06:31

The depreciation of the US dollar has been evident for a while; gold is truly the king of safe-haven assets. --- So this is all for AI stocks this year? Feels like we've been cut a bit. --- It's quite interesting to see institutions transferring assets abroad; we need to watch how Europe and Asia move next. --- A 4% appreciation of the RMB isn't much; I thought it would be more aggressive. --- Will the gold bull market continue? Is it a bit late to enter now... --- The contrast between the falling dollar and rising euro shows that big funds are indeed repositioning. --- Geopolitics really has a huge impact; just looking at stock data doesn't tell the full story. --- Basically, don't go all-in on US stocks; diversification is the key. --- Gold's performance has outpaced US stocks; can this trend continue into 2026? --- Currency wars have started; ordinary investors can only seek survival in the gaps.

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MetaverseVagabond

· 01-06 06:28

The euro has fallen 12%, and the US dollar is no longer the dominant currency—this is the real story. Gold is the MVP of this year. The hype around AI stocks has been so intense that no one is paying attention to the essence of the currency war. What does the devaluation of the dollar mean? Is global capital fleeing? Who still naively only looks at the NASDAQ? Institutions are shifting assets; smart money has long moved out of US stocks. We are still chasing the AI dream. From a macro perspective, the differences in fiscal stimulus determine capital flows, not some AI concept. Non-US stocks and gold are double-killing US stocks—that's the biggest reversal story of 2025. The dollar has fallen 4% against the RMB and 12% against the euro. Behind these numbers is global rebalancing. Gold has become the strongest asset class. What does that indicate? The market is hedging geopolitical and political risks. AI has been overhyped. The truly profitable institutions have already allocated to precious metals and non-US assets. Debt, currency, and productivity—the triangular relationship determines who wins and who loses, not stock price movements.

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