Tonight, two "Employment Data Spectacles" will be staged, and the entire crypto community is holding its breath in anticipation.

At 21:15 Beijing time, the December ADP employment data will be released—traders call it the "Small Non-Farm." Immediately following at 23:00, the November JOLTS job openings data will also be announced. How important are these two sets of data? To put it simply, they directly influence how the market views the Federal Reserve's next move, and the Fed's actions have long been transmitted into the bloodline of the crypto market.

Looking back at November's ADP, the data was quite shocking—it recorded a decrease of 32,000 jobs. The market didn't expect this at all, and suddenly, people started pondering whether US employment is cooling down.

The current market consensus is that December's ADP should rebound to an increase of around 47,000 jobs. But what if the actual number is weak? If the increase is less than 30,000, or even falls back into negative growth territory, it would be a different story. In that case, the market would be even more convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and risk assets could breathe a sigh of relief, with mainstream coins like $BTC and $ETH gaining substantial support.

If the JOLTS job openings data unexpectedly declines, the same logic applies—expectations of easing by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will become even more solid.

On the flip side, we also need to consider the scenario where both data points perform very strongly—that could dampen risk assets and bring bad luck to the crypto market.

Another detail worth paying special attention to: the correlation between the crypto market and traditional stock markets has shown some issues—when the stock market weakens, crypto prices sometimes fall even more sharply. Therefore, investors need to manage their risks carefully. After tonight's data is released, volatility could be more intense than expected.