January 8 | BTC Trend Analysis

Key Points

Current Price: $91,360 (as of January 8, 09:40)

Short-term Outlook: Mainly sideways consolidation, range $90,500-$92,000. Daily MACD shows strong bullish divergence, but 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are forming resistance. Rising derivatives open interest supports consolidation. Expecting 24-48 hours of oscillation, with a higher probability of testing support at $90,500. Breaking above $92,000 requires daily momentum to align.

Key Support Levels: $90,769 (4-hour Bollinger lower band), $90,524 (1-hour Bollinger lower band), $90,991/$90,895 (liquidation clusters), $89,231 (daily 50-day moving average)

Key Resistance Levels: $92,000 (1-hour Bollinger upper band / max pain point for options), $92,588 (1-hour 50-day moving average), $92,780 (4-hour Bollinger middle band)

Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

1-Hour Level

• RSI(14): 41.05, approaching oversold, short-term rebound possible
• MACD: Histogram +30, indicating bullish expansion but overall in negative territory (-397 vs -428)
• Bollinger Bands: Price near middle band at $91,669, upper band at $92,814 as recent resistance
• Moving Averages: EMA12 at $91,413, EMA26 at $91,810, both above price, indicating a bearish alignment
• ADX(14): 29.8, moderate trend strength

4-Hour Level

• RSI(14): 45.77, neutral zone
• MACD: Histogram -393, momentum slightly bearish (171 vs 564)
• Bollinger Bands: Price below middle band at $92,780, support at lower band $90,769
• Moving Averages: EMA12 at $92,108, EMA26 at $91,937, both above price
• OBV: -2,645, volume showing downward pressure

Daily Level

• RSI(14): 54.77, neutral to slightly bullish
• MACD: Bullish crossover, histogram +588 (631 vs 43), daily momentum turning strong
• Bollinger Bands: Price above middle band at $89,296, bands expanding
• Moving Averages: EMA12 at $90,714, EMA26 at $90,083, SMA50 at $89,231, all below price, bullish alignment
• OBV: -92,078, showing bearish divergence with price

Derivatives Market Data

Futures Open Interest

Total market futures open interest at $62.06B, up +3.71% in 24 hours. Binance open interest at $11.92B, +2.26%, confirming market momentum and supporting current consolidation.

( Funding Rate

Funding rates on Binance/Bybit/OKX around +0.01%, longs pay shorts, but rates are mild, indicating no extreme leverage. Next settlement around 17:28 UTC on January 8.

) Liquidation Data

Total liquidations in 24 hours: $70.1M, with longs at $60.6M and shorts at $9.5M. Heavy long liquidations support potential rebound.

Liquidation clusters:

• Below long clusters: $90,991 (cumulative $21M), $90,895 (cumulative $52M), $88,207 (massive $1.6B)
• Above short clusters: $91,663 (cumulative $0.7M), $94,447 (cumulative over $2B)

Options Market

Total options open interest at $32.95B, +3.4% in 24h. Major pain points: $92,000 (expires Jan 10), $89,000 (expires Jan 9). Price tends to gravitate toward max pain levels.

Spot Market and Capital Flows

Market Overview

• Market Cap: $1,823B
• 24h Change: -1.2% to -1.33%
• 24h Volume: $45.39B

Exchange Prices

• Binance Spot: $91,045 | Perpetual: $91,384
• Bybit Spot: $91,108 | Perpetual: $91,275

( Capital Flows

On January 7, net inflow of +1,024 BTC (inflow 33,707 BTC > outflow 32,684 BTC), indicating mild buying pressure. Exchange reserves at 2.746M BTC (~$251B), up slightly +0.04% from previous day, no significant accumulation or distribution signals.

Market Sentiment and Narrative

) Institutions and Macro Environment

• Fidelity increasing BTC holdings, BlackRock/Invesco continue spot ETF inflows
• MicroStrategy holds over 150,000 BTC
• Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.25-3.50%, market expects loose policy supporting risk assets
• Regulatory progress: US bipartisan bills advancing, EU MiCA fully implemented, Hong Kong/Singapore/UAE liberalization

KOLs and Analysts’ Views

• Benjamin Cowen: Believes 2026 may enter a bear market, similar to mid-cycle years historically
• Arthur Hayes: Expects a surge driven by monetary policy before March
• Tom Lee: Predicts new highs before February, based on supercycle dynamics
• Alex Thorn: Downgrades year-end targets due to distribution pressure and external resistance but remains long-term optimistic

Community Sentiment

• Discussions on whether the 4-year cycle has failed, some narratives suggest cycle extension could lead to unexpected rally in 2026
• Focus on liquidity injections in mid-January and regulatory developments (e.g., MSCI decisions, US legislation) as Q1 catalysts
• Overall sentiment shifting from fear to cautious optimism, with short-term expectations of a correction testing support levels

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently in a key consolidation zone. The daily MACD golden cross indicates medium-term momentum turning positive, but short-term moving averages are acting as resistance, limiting immediate upside. Rising derivatives open interest, mild funding rates, and significant long liquidations provide a foundation for sideways movement. In the short term, price is likely to oscillate between $90,500 and $92,000, with support levels dense below. Breaking above $92,000 requires sustained daily momentum. Watch for 1-hour RSI breaking below 40 (triggering a correction) and changes in funding rates (leverage signals). Maintain cautious optimism in the medium term, awaiting macro catalysts for clearer direction.