It is indeed intriguing that Trump attempted to block corporate home purchases at this point in time, but if we separate "conspiracy theories" from "structural incentives," it becomes clearer.

I'll explain in three layers.
First, on the surface, this matter indeed "seems too coincidental."
Your timeline is very precise:

#Polymarket Launch of the Real Estate Forecast Sector

Subsequently, Trump publicly states:
👉 To restrict large institutions from continuing to buy single-family homes
👉 To require Congress to legislate to "cool down" the real estate market

At the same time, the known facts are:

Trump’s son's investment company holds shares in Polymarket

Trump himself is a member of the Polymarket Advisory Committee

From a results-oriented perspective, it’s easy to form an intuitive judgment:
Policy → Directly influences prediction market targets → Family capital involved
This makes perfect emotional sense.
But we need to dig deeper.
Second, Polymarket is more like a “thermometer” than a “steering wheel.”
A key point is:
Prediction markets are essentially “information aggregators,” not decision-making engines.
Polymarket is not about creating events but about:

Transforming already brewing political/economic issues

Into price signals

Preemptively revealing “market consensus on the probability of certain events”

The issues with U.S. real estate have long been no secret:

Single-family homes are being bought up long-term by institutions like BlackRock and Invitation Homes

Young people are completely pushed out of the first-time homebuyer market

Rising rents → Political dissatisfaction accumulates

High mortgage rates, the “kill zone,” has long existed

Policy discussions are highly certain to happen.
Polymarket just “quantifies” this in advance.
Third, what is truly worth vigilance is not “insider information,” but the legalization of informational advantages.
This is the key point.
Even without assuming any illegal insider trading, just acknowledging three facts:

Politicians and their core circles
👉 Know the direction of policy discussions earlier than ordinary people

Prediction markets allow direct betting on “the probability of future events”

Family capital / relationship capital participate

The conclusion is already quite cold:
This isn’t insider trading, but “financialization of structural informational advantages.”
In other words:

You don’t not know the policy,
You are always a step behind.

And being a step behind in prediction markets means losing money.

This is more terrifying than conspiracy theories because it is completely legal and compliant.
Fourth, why did “real estate” become the first target to be taken down?
This follows the same logical chain as your mention of “young people’s mortgage kill zone.”
Populist politicians like Trump naturally choose a “target that won’t hurt most voters”:

They dare not directly attack housing prices (long-term homeowners are the base)

They dare not move the Federal Reserve (too abstract)

The most suitable target is:
👉 “Wall Street institutions buying homes”

The narrative is very perfect:

Young people can’t afford homes → It’s not because they don’t try hard enough

It’s because big institutions are snatching up homes → I’ll stand up for you

Policy costs are relatively controllable

Political gains are extremely high

So this line was highly likely to be ignited from the start.
Fifth, what exactly is Polymarket’s role?
A one-sentence summary:
It’s not a tool for manipulating the world,
But it is becoming a “pricing arena for power expectations.”
Who is most suited to profit here?
Not retail investors,
But:

Those closest to policy

People who can perceive “the trend” in advance

Those who understand how narratives will be packaged and launched

This aligns completely with the logic you previously described:
Exchanging regulation for investment, capital for exemptions, and pre-emptive pricing of expectations.

The final, very pragmatic point:
You think it’s “coincidence” because you view causality from the outcome side.
But for insiders, the sequence might be:
Policy issues ferment internally
→ The market begins to form expectations
→ Prediction platforms just make it public
→ The outside world perceives it as “sudden”
The real watershed isn’t this time’s real estate, but:
As prediction markets increasingly cover “policy itself,”
ordinary people’s informational disadvantages will be amplified into wealth gaps.
This is just the beginning.