January 9 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

• Current Price: $90,917.71 (as of 2026-01-09 09:44, Beijing Time)
• Short-term Outlook: Bulls and bears are in stalemate; the daily chart remains in an upward channel with MACD positive histogram expanding. If the $90,000 level holds, there is approximately a 60% chance of testing $92,000 within 24 hours; if broken below, a pullback to around $88,000 is possible, with about a 40% probability.
• Key Support Levels: $89,649 (1h lower band), $89,554 (4h lower band). If broken, watch for $85,306 (daily lower band).
• Key Resistance Levels: $91,668 (1h upper band), $92,062 (4h mid-band); strong resistance at $93,515 (daily upper band).

Technical Analysis Details

1. Multi-timeframe Indicators

The daily chart maintains an upward channel with higher lows and higher highs. The quick rebound after short-term dips indicates active buying interest below $90,000.

2. Derivatives and Capital Flows

• Open Interest (OI): $61.73B, down -0.55% in 24h, indicating reduced leverage heat.
• Funding Rates: Slightly negative on major exchanges (Binance -0.0019%, OKX -0.0036%), suggesting market favors paying shorts to longs, hinting at potential bullish advantage.
• Liquidation Zones: Below $89,500-$89,900, approximately $108 M long contracts clustered; above $91,500-$92,000, approximately $122 M short contracts accumulated.

3. Price Structure and Patterns

• Recent three days sideways trading in the $89,500-$92,000 range, with candlesticks forming doji patterns, indicating indecision.
• 4h chart forming an ascending triangle: horizontal resistance at $92,000, rising lower boundary. A volume breakout could target $93,500; a breakdown of the sloped side could first target $88,000.

Risks and Catalysts

1. Macro Events: The US Supreme Court tariff ruling is expected today. If it releases liquidity-friendly news, it could trigger an upward breakout; otherwise, it may cause volatility.
2. Leverage Liquidations: Long positions are concentrated below $90,000. Sudden sell-offs could trigger chain liquidations, intensifying a pullback.
3. On-chain Net Outflows: Continuous net outflows from exchanges over the past week suggest tightening spot holdings, which is bullish in the medium to long term.

Trading Tips (Not Investment Advice) • Bullish Approach: Light long positions above $90,000, with a stop-loss at $89,500, targeting $92,000 / $93,500. • Bearish Approach: If broken below $89,500 with increased volume, consider shorting with a target of $88,000 and a stop-loss at $90,000.

Please make decisions prudently based on your risk tolerance and position management principles.