January 10 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $90,600 (As of 10:00 AM on January 10)

Short-term Outlook: Neutral to slightly bearish. The 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes show short-term downward pressure, with MACD displaying negative divergence, but the daily chart still maintains an upward trend. It is expected that the next 24-48 hours will see consolidation and oscillation between $89,500 and $91,500, with a roughly 70% probability of testing lower support.

Key Support Levels:

• $89,500 - 4-hour Bollinger Band lower band coincides with liquidation zone
• $89,000 - 1-hour SMA50 support level
• $87,500 - Major long-term long liquidation zone (Total open interest of $1.27 billion)

Key Resistance Levels:

• $91,200 - 4-hour middle band and EMA12 resistance
• $91,500 - 1-hour SMA200 resistance
• $93,000 - Short liquidation zone (Total open interest of $1.05 billion)

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Short-term trend( 1-hour)

• Price near the middle Bollinger Band ($90,658), below EMA12 ($90,670) and EMA26 ($90,741)
• RSI at 48.80, neutral but slightly weak
• MACD histogram at -2.57, indicating a bearish crossover
• Price below SMA50 ($90,746) and SMA200 ($91,269), short-term structure leans bearish

Mid-term trend( 4-hour)

• Price broke below the middle Bollinger Band ($91,254), testing support at the lower band ($89,434)
• RSI dropped to 45.32, approaching oversold territory
• MACD at a deep negative value (-94.37), showing strong bearish divergence
• Price remains above SMA200 ($89,356) but below SMA50 ($91,325), indicating medium-term resistance

Long-term trend( Daily)

• Price still above the middle Bollinger Band ($89,498), close to the upper band ($93,605)
• RSI at 52.13, neutral to slightly bullish
• MACD at 302.21, maintaining bullish momentum
• Price above SMA50 ($89,417) but below SMA200 ($106,332), overall upward trend remains intact

Market Dynamics and Capital Flows

Spot Market

• BTC fluctuated between $89,671 and $91,839 over the past 24 hours
• After $440 million long liquidation on January 6, price has consolidated around $90,000
• Retraced 28% from October high of $126,000

ETF Capital Flows

• Since January 6, BTC spot ETF has experienced a net outflow of $1.13 billion
• Capital flow from January 6-9 was mixed: inflow of $697 million on Monday, outflow of $486 million on Wednesday
• Institutional profit-taking activity increased at the start of the year

Derivatives Market

• Total open interest at $60.7 billion, down 1.72% in 24 hours, leverage decreasing
• Total liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $59.6 million, with longs at $35.5 million and shorts at $24.2 million (Higher than short liquidations)
• Funding rate positive (0.0079-0.01%), longs paying funding continuously, indicating crowded long positions
• Binance leading with $11.7 billion in open interest (Down 1.55%)

On-chain Data

• Exchange net inflow of 1,306 BTC on January 9
• Net outflow of 5,638 BTC over the past 7 days, indicating mild accumulation trend
• Exchange reserves stable at 2.75 million BTC, supply pressure steady

Liquidation Risk Analysis

Downside liquidation risk

• Below $90,000: cascade liquidation risk, total open interest of $741 million
• $89,224: dense long liquidation zone
• $87,500: key liquidation support level, total open interest of $1.27 billion

Upside liquidation risk

• $92,000: dense short liquidation zone, total open interest of $690 million
• $93,000: major short liquidation zone, total open interest of $1.05 billion

Currently, long liquidation risk is significantly higher than short, and falling below $90,000 could trigger a chain reaction.

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Bearish Scenario( Probability 70%)

• Entry Zone: $90,400-$90,600
• Target Levels: primary at $89,500(, secondary at $89,000)
• Stop Loss: $91,300
• Basis: 4-hour MACD shows deep negative divergence, positive funding rate indicates crowded longs

( Bullish Scenario) Probability 60%, confirmation needed###

• Entry Condition: Break and hold above $91,200
• Target Levels: conservative at $91,500(, aggressive at $93,000)
• Stop Loss: $90,500
• Basis: Daily MACD remains bullish; short-term oversold conditions may trigger a rebound

( Risk Warning

• Watch the key psychological level at $90,000; a break could trigger chain liquidation
• Persistent positive funding rate may lead to further long unwinding
• Federal Reserve policy expectations and macro liquidity remain dominant factors

Summary

BTC is currently in a tug-of-war between short-term correction and long-term upward trend. Technical indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts show pressure, but the daily structure remains healthy. Market sentiment is cautious amid large ETF outflows and crowded long leverage. Focus on the support at $89,500; if broken, further decline toward $87,500 liquidation zone is possible. If support holds and 4-hour RSI shows divergence, a rebound toward $91,500-$93,000 resistance zone is likely. The next 24-48 hours are expected to be characterized by consolidation, with a bias toward a move down first, then up.